>>> AS WE JUST HEARD, TRUMP IS WAGING A GLOBAL TRADE WAR AGAINST ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES ALIKE BY WEAPONIZING TARIFFS.

BUT ARE THEY EFFECTIVE TOOLS TO GET THE U.S. WHAT IT WANTS?

OUR NEXT GUEST, EDWARD FISHMAN, BELIEVES OVERUSING AMERICA'S LEVERAGE COMES WITH GREAT RISKS, BOTH TO THE NATION'S ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL WORLD ORDER.

HE JOINS MICHELLE MARTIN TO DISCUSS.

>> THANK YOU, BIANNA.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE WITH US, MR. FISHMAN.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME, MICHELLE.

>> IN YOUR BOOK, "CHOKEPOINTS," THE U.S.

GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS BECOME A BATTLEFIELD.

I WANT TO PUT SKILL, YOU ARE A FORMER STATE OFFICIAL THAT DESIGNED U.S. POLICY.

HE WROTE, IN TODAY'S GEOPOLITICAL BATTLES, BUSINESS EXECUTIVES HAVE BECOME THE FRONTLINE TROOPS.

THEY ARE THE ONES IMPLEMENTING ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAMPAIGNS, NOT SOLDIERS, NOT SPIES AND NOT DIPLOMATS.

HOW DOES THAT CHANGE THE WAY THE U.S. HAS OPERATED ON THE WORLD STAGE?

WHERE DO WE SEE THIS SHOW UP?

>> WE SEE IT EVERYWHERE.

WE ARE LIVING IN AN AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE TODAY, MICHELLE, IN WHICH SANCTIONS, TARIFFS AND MARKET CONTROLS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY WAY BIG COUNTRIES COMPETE WITH ANOTHER.

CERTAINLY, IT IS TRUE OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT IT IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING TRUE OF OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL.

CHINA, THE EUROPEAN UNION, RUSSIA, THEY'RE ALSO DEVELOPING THESE TOOLS.

I THINK A GOOD WAY TO EXPLAIN SORT OF WHAT HAS CHANGED, YOU KNOW, IN THE LAST TWO DECADES, WE HAVE REALLY ENTERED THIS AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE, IF YOU GO BACK TO THE 1990s, WHEN THE UNITED NATIONS OPPOSED -- IMPOSED AN EMBARGO ON SADDAM HUSSEIN'S IRAQ --SOME PEOPLE MAY REMEMBER AFTER THE GULF WAR IN 1990 AND 1991 --IN ORDER TO STOP IRAQ FROM SELLING OIL ON GLOBAL MARKETS, THE UNITED STATES AND 20 OTHER COUNTRIES HAD TO PATROL THE PERSIAN GULF 24/70 IT AND INSPECT CARGOES GOING IN AND OUT OF IRAQ'S REPORTS AROUND-THE-CLOCK.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED, MICHELLE, IN THE WAKE OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION IN THE '90s, WHEN YOU BRING RUSSIA, CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES INTO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND SUPPLY CHAINS, NOW A SYSTEM TODAY WHERE DONALD TRUMP CAN SIGN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER IN THE OVAL OFFICE AND IMPOSE DRAMATIC ECONOMIC PAIN ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN.

THE BIG REVOLUTION WE HAVE SEEN IS THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR THE USE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE HAS GONE WAY DOWN.

WE NO LONGER NEEDED TO DEPLOY THE MILITARY TO MAKE SANCTIONS WORK, AND THE IMPACT HAS GONE WAY UP.

SO, I THINK THAT IS WHY, TODAY, WE ARE LIVING IN SUCH A NEW AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE.

>> YOU ARGUE THAT THE U.S. HAS COME TO DOMINATE THIS INVISIBLE INFRASTRUCTURE OF GLOBAL FINANCE AND TRADE.

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

AGAIN, I THINK THAT IS ANOTHER THING A LOT OF AMERICANS MIGHT BE SURPRISED BY AND ALSO FRUSTRATED BY, BECAUSE I THINK THEY LOOK AT A SITUATION LIKE RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND WONDER, WHY HASN'T THE U.S. BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE IN, YOU KNOW, ENDING THIS CONFLICT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE USE OF SORT OF ECONOMIC MEANS?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

>> YES.

SO, THE REASON MY BOOK IS CALLED "CHOKE FOUR," IN THE WAKE OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION AND THE '90s, WHEN YOU REALLY DO SEE EVEN COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AND RUSSIA ENTER A DOLLAR-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHEN THEIR TRADE IS EVEN BEING DENOMINATED IN DOLLARS, WHEN YOU'RE NOT TRANSACTING WITH THE UNITED STATES, WHAT HAPPENED IS THERE ARE THESE CHOKEPOINTS THAT DEVELOP, WHERE ONE COUNTRY AS A DOMINANT POSITION AND THERE ARE VERY FEW, IF ANY SUBSTITUTES, AND THE DOLLAR IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THIS, BECAUSE THERE IS REALLY NOT A DIRECT SUBSTITUTE FOR THE DOLLAR, NO OTHER CURRENCY EVEN PLAYS CLOSE TO THE ROLE THE DOLLAR PLACE.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF TRANSACTIONS IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM ARE USING THE DOLLAR, BUT OTHER CHOKEPOINTS TOO, SEMI CONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINS IS ONE WITH SILICON VALLEY'S DOMINATING.

THAT IS WHY THE U.S. CAN IMPOSE EXPORT CONTROLS ON BIG CHINESE COMPANIES LIKE ONES THAT ARE IMPACTFUL.

IF YOU ARE ASKING WHY, WITH SUCH POWER OVER SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TO POINTS LIKE FINANCIAL SYSTEMS AND SEMI CONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINS, WE HAVEN'T DELIVERED A KNOCKOUT BLOW TO RUSSIA.

I THINK IT IS LESS ABOUT RUSSIA FINDING BILLING WAYS TO ADVANCE SANCTIONS AND MORE ABOUT US BEING UNWILLING TO ACTUALLY BRING TO BEAR THE MOST POTENT WEAPONS WE HAVE.

>> WHY IS THAT?

>> BECAUSE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT RUSSIA, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FOREIGN-EXCHANGE THEY ARE GENERATING THIS COMING THROUGH OIL AND GAS EXPORTS.

THE THE, OIL EXPORTS, NUMBER ONE, AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, REALLY, THROUGHOUT 2022 AND 2023, WAS VERY HESITANT TO DO SANCTIONS THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPEDE RUSSIA FROM SELLING OIL ON GLOBAL MARKETS BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED ABOUT WORSENING INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND SPIKING OIL PRICES THAT MAY CAUSE AMERICANS TO HAVE HIGHER PRICES AT THE PUMP.

BY THE WAY, IT IS POSSIBLE DONALD TRUMP WOULD BE INHIBITED BY THE SAME CONCERN.

WE HAVE SEEN DONALD TRUMP TALK ABOUT WANTING TO BRING OIL PRICES DOWN.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, THAT COULD BE PART OF THE REASON WE HAVEN'T SEEN AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA OR IRAN, FOR THAT MATTER.

>> SINCE YOU HAVE BEEN IN THE ROOM FOR SOME OF THESE DECISIONS THAT WERE MADE, IS THERE SOMETHING YOU CAN TELL US ABOUT HOW THESE DECISIONS WERE MADE THAT WAS EITHER SURPRISING TO YOU, OR THAT A LOT OF AMERICANS WOULD BE SURPRISED TO HEAR?

>> GLAD YOU ASKED THAT.

IT REALLY GETS TO THE REASON WHY I WROTE "CHOKEPOINTS. "

I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE INVOLVED IN SOME OF THESE CONVERSATIONS LEADING UP TO THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IN 2013, 2014, 2015 IN RESPONSE TO RUSSIA'S FIRST INVASION OF UKRAINE IN 2014 WHEN THEY ANNEXED CRIMEA.

WHAT FRUSTRATED ME, MICHELLE, WE WOULD DEBATE WHAT TO DO GETS PUT IN AFTER HE ANNEXED CRIMEA, WE WOULD DISCUSS WHETHER OR NOT TO ARM UKRAINIANS.

EVERYONE AT THE TABLE IN THIS SITUATION HAD AN OPINION.

WASN'T JUST THE HANDGUN, THE CIA HAD AN OPINION, STATE DEPARTMENT HAD AN OPINION.

EVERYONE THOUGHT THEY COULD WEIGH IN.

WHEN ECONOMIC WARFARE CAME UP AND SANCTIONS CAME UP, THE ROOM WOULD GO QUIET.

I THINK THAT IS BECAUSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT SANCTIONS HAVE BECOME THE PRIMARY TOOL AMERICAN USES, TO MANY AMERICANS, INCLUDING PEOPLE IN POWER, THEY FEEL A LITTLE ARCANE.

WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW THEY WORK.

USUALLY, YOU WOULD HAVE ONE OR TWO PEOPLE DOMINATING THE CONVERSATION.

I WORRIED THAT, YOU KNOW, WE WERE LIVING IN AN AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE AND WE WEREN'T REALLY EQUIPPED TO MAKE SOUND DECISIONS.

MY BIGGEST HOPE IN WRITING THIS BOOK, "CHOKEPOINTS," IS TO ELEVATE OUR NATIONAL CONVERSATION IN THE NET ESTATES ABOUT USE OF SANCTIONS AND INTERNATIONALLY.

AGAIN, IT IS NOT JUST UNITED STATES USING THESE TOOLS.

>> ARE TARIFFS A FORM OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS?

>> YEAH.

IT IS INTERESTING.

HISTORICALLY, THEY HAVEN'T BEEN.

HISTORICALLY, WE HAVE USED TARIFFS FOR MORE ECONOMIC REASONS.

RIGHT?

EARLY IN AMERICAN HISTORY, EVEN BACK TO GEORGE WASHINGTON, TARIFFS WERE USED TO RAISE REVENUE FOR THE GOVERNMENT, FOR THE INCOME TAX, MIND YOU, BACK THEN, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WAS TINY, MUCH, MUCH SMALLER THAN TODAY, AND MORE RECENTLY AND MORE POSSIBLY, SANCTIONS CAN BE USED TO PROTECT DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES AGAINST FOREIGN COMPETITION.

A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THE UNITED STATES IMPOSED HUNDRED PERCENT TARIFFS ON CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES, BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED THAT IF CHEAPER, MORE EFFICIENT CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES FLOODED THE AMERICAN MARKET, IT WOULD HURT COMPANIES LIKE TESLA, PRODUCING ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR THE UNITED STATES.

WHAT TRUMP HAS DONE IS HE HAS BEEN USING TARIFFS AND CLAIMING TO USE TARIFFS TO RAISE REVENUE AND PROTECT DOMESTIC JUST RATES BUT LOOK BEYOND THAT TO SAY THAT TARIFFS ARE ANOTHER FORM OF SANCTION, AND WE CAN USE TARIFFS TO FORCE THE MEXICANS TO PUT MORE TROOPS ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER, OR COMPELLED CANADA TO BECOME THE 51st STATE, OR EVEN, YOU KNOW, TO PRESSURE COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD TO STOP BUYING VENEZUELAN OIL, SOMETHING HE HAS DONE IN RECENT DAYS.

WHEN HE HAS CALLED SECONDARY TARIFFS.

I THINK, UNDER TRUMP, WE HAVE SEEN IN MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE USE OF TARIFFS THAT LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE ECONOMIC WARFARE AND LESS LIKE A TOOL OF STANDARD ECONOMIC POLICY.

>> THAT IS FASCINATING, BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT TARIFFS, THIS ONE REASON WHY RONALD REAGAN, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS OPPOSED TO THEM --HE WAS A TRUE CONSERVATIVE WHO BELIEVED --AT LEAST A TRUE ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVE --WHO BELIEVED IT WASN'T THE GOVERNMENT'S PLACE TO BE PICKING WINNERS AND LOSERS.

PRESIDENT TRUMP USING TARIFFS TO FAVOR AND DISFAVOR CERTAIN AMERICAN INDUSTRIES, OR IS HE USING THEM TO ADVANCE KIND OF GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS APART FROM THE WINNERS AND LOSERS ON THE AMERICAN SIDE?

>> SURE.

WE HAVE SEEN TRUMP TALK ABOUT TARIFFS AS BASICALLY A MAGIC BULLET TO CURE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

RAISING REVENUE, PROTECTING THE STEEL INDUSTRY OR THE CAR INDUSTRY, AND IT IS, YOU KNOW, PRESSURING OTHER GOVERNMENTS TO BASICALLY BEND TO HIS WILL.

HE IS TRYING TO USE IT AT THIS CURE-OFFER ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

I DON'T THINK THAT IS A WISE USE OF TARIFFS, PERSONALLY.

WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT RONALD REAGAN I THINK IS A GREAT POINT.

SOMETHING PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE --SURPRISING, BECAUSE IT IS VERY BASIC -- TARIFFS ARE A TAX ON IMPORTS.

WHO PAYS THE TARIFF?

IT IS A UNITED STATES COMPANY THAT IS IMPORTING A GOOD THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS, YOU KNOW, I MAKE MY DAUGHTER PANCAKES EVERY SATURDAY MORNING.

CANADA IS A BIG EXPORTER OF MAPLE SYRUP.

IF WE HAVE A 25% TARIFF ON CANADA, I CAN STILL BUY MY DAUGHTER'S MAPLE SYRUP.

I JUST HAVE TO PAY 25% MORE THAN I WOULD OTHERWISE.

RIGHT?

IT IS NOT THE MOST EFFICIENT USE OF ECONOMIC POLICY, IT IS GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY, IT IS WHY CONSERVATIVES LIKE RONALD REAGAN HAVEN'T LIKED TARIFFS.

I MAKE IT IS INTERESTING, MICHELLE, IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT TARIFFS AS A FORM OF ECONOMIC WARFARE, THEY ARE ACTUALLY VERY WEAK TOOL.

TO GO BACK TO THE MAPLE SYRUP EXAMPLE, LET'S SAY, TRUMP REMOVED THE SANCTIONS ON THE COMEDIAN --CANADIAN MAPLE SYRUP COMPANY.

I WOULD NOT BUY THE MAPLE SYRUP, IT WOULD BE ILLEGAL TO BUY ANY MAPLE SYRUP.

MORE TO THE POINT, BECAUSE THE CANADIAN MAPLE SYRUP COMPANY WOULD NO LONGER HAVE ACCESS TO THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM, IT MAY WELL GO BANKRUPT THE NEXT DAY.

SANCTIONS ARE MUCH, MUCH MORE POWERFUL GEOPOLITICAL TOOL THAN SANCTIONS --TARIFFS -- TRUMP CALLS HIMSELF A TARIFF MAN -- BUT I THINK YOU WILL BE DISAPPOINTED WHEN HE TRIES TO USE TARIFFS TO CURE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

>> DO YOU UNDERSTAND ANY SENSE OF WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SO ENAMORED WITH TARIFFS AS A PART OF THIS KIND OF GLOBAL OR GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY?

>> SURE YOU KNOW, THERE ARE VERY FEW THINGS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS INSISTENT ON.

BUT TARIFFS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THEM.

IF YOU GO BACK EVEN TO THE '80s WHEN HE WAS FAR FROM POLITICS, HE WAS ADVOCATING FOR TARIFFS AND SAYING THAT, YOU KNOW, WE WERE LOSING TO JAPAN BECAUSE WE WERE RUNNING A GIANT TRADE DEFICIT WITH JAPAN.

WE WERE IMPORTING MUCH MORE FROM JAPAN THAN JAPAN WAS IMPORTING FROM US.

SO, WE SHOULD TAX THOSE IMPORTS.

TRUMP ACTUALLY, I THINK THERE WAS AN IMPORTANT, AND HE MAKES IN HIS FIRST TERM.

IN SOME WAYS, IT HELPS US UNDERSTAND HIS MENTALITY, WHERE HE SAYS, BECAUSE WE ARE RUNNING SUCH BIG DEFICITS, TRADE WARS ARE GOOD AND EASY TO WIN.

THE PROBLEM IS, THAT IS A MENTALITY GOING BACK TO THE '80s, BEFORE THE AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE I DESCRIBED IN MY BOOK.

WHAT WE HAVE NOW IS WE HAVE MULTI-DOMAIN ECONOMIC WAR HAPPENING, TOOLS THAT ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN TARIFFS LIKE SANCTIONS AND EXPORT CONTROLS.

WHAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT NOW, MICHELLE, IF YOU LOOK AT HOW CHINA HAS RETALIATED AGAINST THE EARLY TARIFFS OF THIS SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, IT HASN'T JUST BEEN WITH THEIR OWN TARIFFS, THEY HAVE RETALIATED WITH SANCTIONS, IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON THE AMERICAN APPAREL COMPANY ON THE AMERICAN DNA SEQUENCER, ON THE BIGGEST DRONE COMPANY IN SILICON VALLEY THAT HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR THESE AMERICAN COMPANIES, IMPOSED EXPORT CONTROLS ON CRITICAL MINERALS TO THE U.S. WE RELY ON, EVERYTHING FROM AMMUNITION TO BATTERIES.

RIGHT?

THEN, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE LOST ANTIMONOPOLY INVESTIGATIONS INTO BIG TECH COMPANIES LIKE GOOGLE AND NVIDIA.

THE RISK TODAY ISN'T SO MUCH A TRADE WAR.

I ACTUALLY THINK THAT IS A MISNOMER.

IT IS REALLY THE MULTI-DOMAIN ECONOMIC WAR.

I THINK THAT IS THE REASON WHY I FEAR THAT TRUMP IS PLAYING WITH FIRE WITH THESE TARIFFS.

>> WHEN IS THIS CAR GOING TO CRASH?

WHEN ARE AMERICAN CONSUMERS LIKELY TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS?

ARE THEY ALREADY?

>> I THINK ONE OF THE IRONIES IS SO FAR --I THINK THINGS COULD CHANGE VERY SOON --TRUMP HAS BEEN THREATENING TARIFFS AND THEN RETRACTING THEM, PUTTING THEM IN PLACE AND PULLING BACK.

THE IRONY IS THAT, WHAT I THINK WE WILL SEE IN THE DATA, IS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT HAS SPIKED BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE PANIC BUYING, BASICALLY HOARDING, BUYING MORE THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE.

IF TRUMP KEEPS KIND OF THIS, YOU KNOW, HALF-IN, HALF-OUT APPROACH, I THINK YOU WILL KEEP SEEING MORE HOARDING, AND YOU ARE NOT GOING TO ACTUALLY SEE THE CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR THAT TRUMP WANTS.

LET'S SAY, TRUMP DOES, YOU KNOW, PUT THESE TARIFFS IN PLACE, YOU KNOW, THIS MONTH, IN APRIL, AND THEY STAY IN PLACE, BECAUSE HE REALLY WANTS TO BE SURE ALL THE COMPONENTS OF THE AUTO INDUSTRY.

AMERICANS ARE GOING TO FEEL THAT REALLY!

IT IS NOT LIKE THE AUTO INDUSTRY HAS HUGE NUMBERS OF CARS AND INVENTORY THAT ARE ALREADY BUILT.

RIGHT?

PRETTY SOON, WITHIN A FEW WEEKS OF THE TARIFFS GOING INTO EFFECT, YOU WILL SEE CAR PRICES GOING UP.

NOW WOULD PROBABLY BE THE TIME TO BUILD A CAR.

IN TERMS OF WHEN THINGS COULD GO OFF THE RAILS, THE THING I'M WORRIED ABOUT IS, FOR SURE, THE IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

AND WE ALSO NEED TO ZOOM OUT A SECOND AND THINK ABOUT WHAT KIND OF A WORLD DOES THIS USHER IN.

IF THERE IS A WORLD WHERE WE ARE IMPOSING SANCTIONS AND TARIFFS NOT JUST AGAINST THE CHINAS AND RUSSIAS OF THE WORLD, AGAINST OUR ADVERSARIES, BUT AGAINST CANADA, MEXICO, EUROPEAN UNION, BASICALLY EVERYONE, WE KIND OF WINDUP BACKING INTO AUTARKY, THIS NOTION WHERE EVERYTHING JUST HAVE TO BE MADE IN THE U.S., AND THAT VISION IS ONE THAT, HISTORICALLY, HAS INSPIRED THINGS LIKE IMPERIALISM AND CONQUEST.

IF YOU DON'T FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT YOU CAN BUY RESOURCES FROM A PLACE LIKE GREENLAND, THE MENTALITY IS, MAYBE WE CAN CONQUER AND PLANT A FLAG THERE TO HAVE SECURE ACCESS TO RESOURCES.

SO, I WORRY NOT JUST SO MUCH FOR THE NEAR TERM INFLATION, YOU KNOW, OR HOW IT IS AFFECTING OUR POCKETBOOKS, I WORRY ABOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS, WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE GLOBAL ORDER AND THE RISK OF WARFARE, NOT JUST ECONOMIC WARFARE.

>> SPEAKING OF WARFARE, LET'S TALK ABOUT RUSSIA.

WE STARTED OUR CONVERSATION TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IN AN EFFORT TO CURB THEIR AGGRESSION INTO UKRAINE.

WHAT ABOUT NOW?

IS THERE ADDITIONAL CAPACITY THERE THAT COULD BRING -- >> TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO BRING THEM TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE TO BRING THIS CONFLICT TO AN END?

THE PRESIDENT SAYS, HE WANTS THIS CONFLICT TO END.

ARE THERE TOOLS HE IS NOT USING?

>> FOR SURE.

I THINK MAYBE ONE THING, JUST A LEVEL SET ON, AND THEN I WILL ANSWER YOUR QUESTION DIRECTLY, IS THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THESE RUSSIA SANCTIONS.

PEOPLE THINK THAT THEY HAVEN'T WORKED.

I WILL REMIND FOLKS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE BIG RUSSIA SANCTIONS WENT INTO EFFECT ABOUT THREE YEARS AGO, RIGHT AFTER THE INVASION IN FEBRUARY OF 2022.

BY NOW, THREE YEARS LATER, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS POISED FOR ZERO GROWTH IN 2025.

SIGNIFICANT INFLATION WITH THE INTEREST RATE WELL OVER 20%.

MORTGAGES IN RUSSIA, BELOW 30%.

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS NOT DOING VERY WELL.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, 3 YEARS IS ACTUALLY NOT THAT LONG.

THE IRAN SANCTIONS CAMPAIGN THAT LED TO THE NUCLEAR DEAL STARTED IN EARNEST IN 2006.

DIDN'T GET THE FIRST NUCLEAR DEAL UNTIL 2013, 7 YEARS.

THESE CAMPAIGNS TAKE A WHILE.

I THINK PART OF THE REASON, MICHELLE, YOU ARE SEEING POTENT SO DESPERATE RIGHT NOW FOR A BILATERAL DEAL WITH TRUMP TO TRY TO PERSUADE TRUMP THAT WE NEED TO NORMALIZE U.S. -RUSSIAN RELATIONS AS HE REALIZES HIS ECONOMY CAN'T GO ON THE WAY IT IS FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS.

HE NEEDS A LIFEBOAT TO BE SENT TO HIM BY THE UNITED STATES.

SAY, TRUMP REALIZES THIS AND SAYS, I REALLY WANT TO END THE WAR WITH UKRAINE.

HE COULD RAMP UP USHER AND ACCELERATE THAT TIMELINE.

YOU COULD SAY, YOU KNOW, WE ARE GOING TO IMPROVE --AND POSE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS.

IF WE WERE TO DO THAT INSTEAD OF FACING A CRISIS IN ONE OR TWO YEARS, PUTIN MAY FACE A CRISIS IN THREE OR SIX MONTHS IN WHICH CASE HE WOULD HAVE A BIG INCENTIVE TO MAKE A PEACE DEAL TODAY.

IT MAY NOT MEET HIS MAXIMALIST OBJECTIVES.

>> BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, YOU STARTED BY SAYING, I KNOW YOU ARE CONCERNED THAT THIS SORT OF ECONOMIC WARFARE CAN LEAD TO OTHER FORMS OF WARFARE.

ALL OF THIS DEBATE AND DISCUSSION AROUND TARIFFS IS DEEPLY UNSETTLING TO THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, TO THE MARKETS, AND INEVITABLY, TO CONSUMERS, BUT DO YOU THINK, IN A WAY, THIS HAS ELEVATED OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THIS TO THE POINT WHERE, PERHAPS, PEOPLE ARE TAKING IT MORE SERIOUSLY AND EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT MORE?

>> I DO THINK SO.

I WILL SAY, IN THE UNITED STATES AT THE END OF FEBRUARY -- THE BOOK HAS BEEN OUT OVER A MONTH NOW -- IT HAS DONE INCREDIBLY WELL.

IT HAS BEEN A "NEW YORK TIMES" BESTSELLER, WHICH I DON'T THINK MANY PEOPLE WOULD HAVE ASSUMED WAS POSSIBLE FOR A BOOK ON SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC WARFARE AND TARIFFS.

I FOUND AUDIENCES ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY, SOON, IN OTHER COUNTRIES, VERY RECEPTIVE TO THIS.

I AM HOPEFUL THAT, YOU KNOW, MY BOOK CAN PLAY A SMALL ROLE IN ELEVATING THAT NATIONAL CONVERSATION, THAT PEOPLE ARE EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT THIS TOPIC, AND OBVIOUSLY, I WOULD NOT WANT THE CIRCUMSTANCES TO BE ONES IN WHICH PEOPLE ARE EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT IT, BUT I THINK THERE IS AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE, WHICH IS THE AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE PREDATES TRUMP.

THIS IS A SECULAR TREND THAT STARTED DURING GEORGE W. BUSH'S PRESIDENCY, ACCELERATED DURING OBAMA, TRUMP, BIDEN NOW TRUMP AGAIN.

IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO ADD, LAST, THIS CURRENT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AS WELL.

IF THIS IS SORT OF THE PUSH THAT WE ALL NEED TO LEARN ABOUT THESE TOOLS TO TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY, TO KEEP AMERICA AND OUR COUNTRIES AND FAMILIES SAFE IN THIS, WARFARE, MAYBE THAT IS THE SILVER LINING OF ALL OF THE CHAOS WE ARE SEEING TODAY.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH US, AND FOR SHARING THESE EXPERTISE.

>> THANK YOU, MICHELLE, I REALLY ENJOYED THE CONVERSATION.