GEOFF BENNETT: It has been over a week since# Iran imposed a complete Internet blackout,## keeping most of its 90 million people cut off# from the outside world.

Human rights activists## say the death toll from the government# crackdown has risen to more than 3,000,## and a leading Iranian cleric called# today for the execution of prisoners.

But, today, President Trump thanked# the Iranian regime for not executing## what he said were hundreds of political# prisoners who were facing the death penalty.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: Iran# canceled the hanging of over 800 people.

They were## going to hang over 800 people yesterday.

And I# greatly respect the fact that they canceled that.

GEOFF BENNETT: And the crown# prince in exile, Reza Pahlavi,## held a press briefing in Washington today# and urged U.S.

military intervention.

REZA PAHLAVI, Former Crown Prince of Iran: What# will hurt the regime most?

By dismantling its## apparatus of state terror and repression.# A lot of it are the regime's military,## paramilitary assets, mostly IRGC targets.

So I'm# calling for a surgical strike on those means.

GEOFF BENNETT: To help us understand the events# in Iran, we turn now to Abbas Milani, director## of Iranian studies at Stanford University,# and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East## studies at the Council on Foreign Relations# specializing in Iran and U.S.

foreign policy.

Thank you both for being here.

Ray, we will start with you.

Was the regime in Iran ever truly on# the brink of.. what conditions need to exist for that to happen?

RAY TAKEYH, Former State Department Official:# When it comes to the Iranian regime collapsing,## we seem to oscillate between# inevitable and unthinkable.

The regime certainly experienced significant# stress in terms of popular uprisings that it## experienced throughout the country.

That# comes at a time of foreign intervention## that it was fearful of, and, of course,# depletion of its economic resources.

However, I do believe that the regime has# sufficient resources to get through this## particular phase of protests and gain# control of the streets.

Now, if these## demonstrations persist, then that is likely to# tax its resources in a more significant way.

GEOFF BENNETT: Abbas, a question about# these protests and demonstrations.

I## know you have been able to reach a few# people there, despite the blackout.

In simple terms, have the# protests been extinguished## or have they just been pushed underground?

ABBAS MILANI, Stanford University:# I think they have been pushed into## temporary silence.

I don't think# they have been extinguished.

If you look at the 45-year history of this regime,# you see these cycles of resistance, repression,## and then the reemergence of the resistance,# because these problems are structural.

The## regime is incapable of solving them.

People# become increasingly frustrated.

And people## become increasingly emboldened, particularly,# for example, by women, who have shown that,## if you are fierce, if you are in numbers strong# enough, you can force the regime to back down.

So I doubt that this will be# an end, but I think, right now,## clearly, by killing the thousands# -- and I think the number will go## higher than the 3,500 -- they have forced# people to retreat back to their homes.

GEOFF BENNETT: And right here in Washington,## there was talk of possible military# action and then a clear .. Based on your -- what you know# to be true, what happened?

RAY TAKEYH: Perhaps a number of things.

The president was under a lot of# pressure from the regional allies,## who did not want military action and# potentially expansion of this conflict## and destabilizing the region, particularly# their economy.

The Iranian regime began to## maintain greater control of the streets# and therefore possibility of a military## action significantly tipping the balance one# way or the other may have been in question.

And, also, the president declared victory.# He said executions have stopped and therefore## he doesn't need to abide by his own# established red lines.

I would say,## in 2013, when President Obama established# a red line that he did not adhere to,## he was criticized roundly by many# people, including President Trump.

But President Trump is not# a conventional politician## and he can do things that perhaps others can't.

GEOFF BENNETT: Abbas, how damaging was it,## if at all, for President Trump to say# that help is coming and then not act?

ABBAS MILANI: I think it was disheartening.

I# think many people took his promise seriously.## They thought that he would certainly come to# the help of the people.

He even invited people## to take over government buildings, which was even# more than inviting them to come to the streets.

So I think, knowing how President Trump# operates, I would be surprised if he## doesn't show some kind of a response.

But, as# Ray indicated, he has found a way to indicate## that maybe his red line wasn't shot down.# But we know, actually, in the last 24 hours,## the regime has hung at least 50-odd number# of people.

They claim they're criminals.

But we have to remember this regime has# killed 4,000 people almost in secret in## 1989.

So the fact that this regime says# I will not kill does not mean it will## not kill.

It might kill in secret.

The world# has to know the kind of regime we are facing.

GEOFF BENNETT: What leverage does the U.S.# have that doesn't involve military force,## be it sanctions, diplomacy, regional pressure,# leverage that actually matters to this regime?

RAY TAKEYH: I'm not sure how much more# Iranian economy can be sanctioned.

It's## already sequestered from the global economy.

It# does sell its oil on discount to the Chinese,## so perhaps an interdiction of its# oil supplies and sort of things## happening in Venezuela can put# some kind of a pressure on it.

In terms of diplomatic ostracism, they don't# seem to care that much about it.

They have## lost the global opinion, just to say they# don't have regional allies.

The regime is## on a considerable degree of press -- of pressure,# but I'm not quite sure if economic sanctions and## particularly individual designations are# going to do much at this particular stage.

The economy is already prostrate, and I'm# not sure how much more that can be done.

GEOFF BENNETT: Abbas, as you well know,## historically regimes fall when# elites or security forces defect.

At this point, do you see any# signs of cracks within the IRGC?

ABBAS MILANI: I see no cracks within the# IRGC, except occasional comments by past## commanders of the IRGC who indicate# that the status quo is untenable.

I do see cracks within the regime,## in the sense that there are many people# within the regime who sometimes even talk## on Iranian media who say Mr.

Khamenei's path# is untenable, the status quo is untenable.

And I just want to say that the notion# that this regime has been sanctioned## is partly true.

Last year, the indications# are from the government's own account that## they sold almost $60 billion of# oil in black markets.

So they## have the benefit of telling the Iranian# people that this is a sanctioned regime.

But using all kinds of very sophisticated# techniques, they have been able to sell## that money and, with that, keep their apparatus# of oppression oiled.

Economic pressure on this## regime, freezing their assets, freezing their# activities, diplomatic activities, around the## world, I think is the biggest leverage that the# international community has against this regime.

They have to understand that you cannot# kill your way out of these demonstrations.## You haven't been able to kill it out of# past demonstrations.

Every killing spree## has begotten larger demonstrations and# has forced the regime to more brutality.

This is arguably the bloodiest suppression# in a very bloody, sordid 44-year history.

GEOFF BENNETT: Ray, what specific signs# should we watch for in the coming weeks,## whether it's inside the security forces, in# the economy, or the clerical establishment,## that would signal that there is a shift under way?

RAY TAKEYH: The challenge for the# opposition is persistence.

People## say it has to have a structure and# leadership.

It doesn't meet those at## this point.

It has to have persistence# and ability to come to the streets.

And should it do so, those leaders and# structures will emerge.

And the longer this goes,## then you're going to see greater cracks within# the regime and greater defections within the armed## forces.

If this actually spreads throughout# the region, encompassing throughout Iran,## then the regime will have to bring in armed# forces, because Revolutionary Guards and## Basij forces are not sufficient in terms# of manpower if this is large and diffuse.

Then they're going to have to rely on conscripts# to go into the neighborhood and shantytowns that## are culturally familiar to them and engage# in repression.

They don't want to do that## because they recognize how risky it is.

I didn't# expect the Revolutionary Guards to break today,## but, over a period of time, if the opposition# managed to persist, then they have a chance.

As Professor Milani suggested, the problem with# Iranian opposition has been, it's episodic.## There's an eruption and everybody goes home.# There's an eruption.

So the regime has managed## to gain strength again.

If the 3,000 dead figures# are true -- and they're quite possibly discounted,## as Dr.

Milani indicated -- that is more# people than died in the '78-'79 revolution.

So this is the level of scale# of violence that we see,## which is almost unprecedented in Iranian history.

GEOFF BENNETT: Ray Takeyh, Abbas Milani, thank# you both for your insights.

We appreciate it.

RAY TAKEYH: Thank you.

ABBAS MILANI: Thank you.