>>> AN ESCALATION TRAP.

THAT IS WHERE OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS HEADED IN ITS IRAN WAR.

ROBERT PAPE IS A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND AN EXPERT ON GLOBAL SECURITY WHO ARGUES THAT THE MAJOR DECAPITATION OF IRAN'S LEADERSHIP FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY BREAK THE REGIME WHILE UPPING THE PRESSURE FOR MORE FORCE, INCLUDING RAISING THE SPECTER OF A GROUND WAR.

HE JOINED HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE INITIAL TACTICAL SUCCESSES AND THE LONG-TERM STRATEGIC SUCCESS.

>> CHRISTIANE , THANKS.

ROBERT PAPE, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

YOU RECENTLY LAUNCHED A SUB STACK CALLED THE ESCALATION TRAP.

FIRST OF ALL, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> THE ESCALATION TRAP OR A SET OF FRAMEWORKS I HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FOR 30 YEARS.

I STARTED DEVELOPING THESE WHEN I FOUGHT FOR THE U.S.

AIR FORCE TO HELP PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN WHEN BOMBS HIT TARGETS AND A POLITICAL OUTCOME.

EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS THAT THERE IS MILITARY ACTION AND THEN SOME POLITICAL AND STATED THEY WANT BUT WHAT IS THAT MIDDLE?

THERE ARE ESCALATION DYNAMICS.

IT IS WHERE POLITICS AND THE MILITARY INTERACT AND THAT IS WHAT IS SO SPECIAL ABOUT THE ESCALATION TRAP AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, WHEN I SET IT UP JUST BEFORE THE BOMBING STARTED IN THE IRAN WAR, YOU CALL THAT THE TRAP.

NOT JUST ESCALATION DYNAMICS.

I DID THAT ON PURPOSE BECAUSE I LAID OUT THE STAGES, ONE, TWO, THREE OF THE LIKELY ESCALATION TRAP THAT WE WERE GETTING OURSELVES INTO AND YET, WITH EACH STAGE, YOU LOSE MORE CONTROL.

SO, THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL IS WHAT HELPS SET OFF THE ESCALATION TRAP IN A STAGE ONE.

PRECISION BOMBS HIT TARGETS, KILL LEADERS BUT THAT LEADS TO THEN A STRATEGIC FAILURE, REGIME BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE, MORE DANGEROUS, DON'T GET THE ENRICHED URANIUM AND THEN DOUBLE DOWN REGIME BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE STILL, TAKES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND NOW THAT IS STAGE ONE AND STAGE TWO AND I LAID THAT OUT BEFORE THE BOMBS EVEN FELL AND HERE WE ARE WITH THE ESCALATION TRAP, THE TEETH CLOSING.

>> IN A WAY, STAGE ONE IS ALLURING, RIGHT?

IF WE CAN ACHIEVE OUR GOALS FROM 20,000 FEET UP WITHOUT PUTTING A BOOT ON THE GROUND AND GO IN AND OUT QUICKLY BUT HOW IS IT AUTOMATIC THAT IT GOES FROM STAGE ONE TO STAGE TWO?

HOW DOES THE TRAP KIND OF GET SPRUNG?

>> WHAT HAPPENS IS, TO ADD TO WHAT YOU JUST SAID, WHICH IS EXCELLENT, ONE MORE POINT WHICH IS THAT YOU ARE SO CONSONANT OF SUCCESS, STRATEGIC SUCCESS, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY BACKUP PLAN TO DEAL WITH THE ENEMY LASHING BACK.

SO, ONCE YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT AND, REALLY, WITH PRECISION BOMBS WHEN YOU HAVE GENERALS WITH STARS SAYING THIS WILL BE DESTROYED, 90% PLUS PROBABILITY, MY GOODNESS.

THIS IS TRUE.

THESE ARE NOT FALSE STATEMENTS BUT IT IS THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL AND THAT ILLUSION THEN LEADS TO DOWNPLAYING WORST-CASE SCENARIOS AND IT IS NOT UNIQUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP.

THIS MAY BE THE WORST ESCALATION TRAP EVER, BY THE WAY WITH SMART BOMBS BUT WHAT HAPPENED, SAY, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH KOSOVO, MARCH 99, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, A THREE DAY AIR WAR, TRIED TO TAKE DOWN THE REGIME IN SERBIA, TRY TO HELP THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN COSO, THIS REPUBLIC IN THE FORM OF YUGOSLAVIA AND WHAT DOES IT DO?

HE LAUNCHES 30,000 TROOPS AND ETHNICALLY CLEANSES HALF OF COSO.

THAT IS 800,000+ CIVILIANS KILLED 3000.

THERE WAS NO ARMY AT THE TIME, THAT THREE DAY AIR WAR WAS THE WORST CASE AND I KNOW BECAUSE I TALKED TO THE PEOPLE THAT PLANNED IT.

THEY DID NOT EVEN IMAGINE WHAT WOULD BE THE WORST CASE.

WHAT WE SEE HERE IS TAKING HORMUZ.

IT IS NOT SO MUCH THAT THERE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN SOME MENTION OF THAT IN THE BRIEFINGS TO TRUMP .

THAT IS NOT QUITE RIGHT.

IT IS THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL.

IT IS PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OTHERS AROUND HIS CIRCLE SAYING MY GOODNESS, WE WILL NOT JUST HAVE THE BOMBS HIT A TARGET, WE CONTROL.

WE WILL DOMINATE.

THEY WOULDN'T DARE TAKE HORMUZ.

WELL, THEY DID.

THEY GOT IT.

NOW THE CONTROL MORE OIL THAN WE DO.

>> IS THERE A DIFFERENCE HERE?

CAN YOU SPELL OUT FOR OUR AUDIENCE, WAS THIS TACTICALLY A SUCCESS VERSUS STRATEGICALLY A FAILURE?

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE?

>> YEAH.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT WHEN BOMBS HIT TARGETS, THEY DESTROY THE FACILITY.

THEY DESTROY THE COMMUNICATIONS OF LEADERS AND THEY KILL LEADERS.

THAT IS TACTICAL SUCCESS.

THAT IS WHAT OUR MILITARY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD AT.

I HAVE TALKED TO THE BEST PILOTS IN THE AIR FORCE AND THEY PUT BOMBS ON TARGETS BETTER THAN ANYBODY ELSE.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IS ONCE THE BOMB HITS A TARGET, HOW DO YOU GET TO THE POLITICAL OUTCOME, THE STRATEGIC SUCCESS?

THAT IS THE STAGES OF ESCALATION WHERE POLITICS COMES IN.

BOMBS HIT THE TARGET AND NOW SUDDENLY POLITICS INSIDE OF THE TARGET COUNTRY, BOTH THE REGIME AND THE SOCIETY CHANGE.

ALL THOSE PREWAR TRENDS YOU HAD, ALL OF THAT INTEL THAT YOU HAD SITK, ALL OF THESE FANCY WORDS FOR THE TOP-SECRET INTEL, NONE OF THAT NOW IS STILL THE SAME BECAUSE THE POLITICS IS CHANGING, LITERALLY WITH THE DROPPING OF THE BOMB AND THAT IS WHERE MY WORK HAS COME IN, TO SHOW THAT FOR OVER 100 YEARS, WHEN YOU BOMB LEADERS, AIR POWER ALONE HAS NEVER TOPPLED A REGIME BECAUSE WHAT IT DOES IS IT CHANGES POLITICS INSIDE OF THE TARGET, MAKES THE REGIME MORE LIKELY, THE NEW LEADERS MORE LIKELY TO FIGHT BACK AND BE AGGRESSIVE, MAKES EVEN THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENTS GUN SHY ABOUT SUPPORTING THE BOMBER, THE 800 POUND GORILLA OF THE UNITED STATES WHO IS DOING ALL THIS AND WHAT YOU END UP WITH THEN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LASHING BACK, LASHING BACK.

IN THIS CASE, THAT ALWAYS MEANT HORIZONTAL ESCALATION, THE GCC COUNTRIES WHICH, AGAIN, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SAID, WE DIDN'T THINK THEY HIT THE GCC COUNTRIES.

THIS IS JUST LIKE THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, DIDN'T THINK THEY WOULD CLEANSE.

WORSE THAN THAT, THEY COULD TAKE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

UNLIKE SERBIA, THIS IS LIKELY GOING DOWN AS THE WORST CATASTROPHE OF THE ESCALATION TRAP WE HAVE SEEN WITH AIR POWER IN HISTORY.

>> THERE IS ALWAYS THE FOG OF WAR AND WHETHER IT IS INTENTIONAL OR ACCIDENTAL.

YOU HAVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE.

IN THIS CASE, BY DAY TWO, WE HAD DOZENS OF SCHOOLGIRLS KILLED.

AND, WE HAD ENTIRE FAMILY MEMBERS OF THE AYATOLLAH KILLED.

DOES THAT SPUR -- I DON'T KNOW, ALMOST A UNIFICATION OF DIFFERENT BRANCHES INSIDE THE POPULATION TO SAY, NOBODY KILLS OUR DAUGHTERS?

>> EVEN WITH SMART BOMBS, THERE IS GOING TO BE COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF A SERIOUS NATURE.

WHY?

BECAUSE THE ALLURE OF THE PRECISION MEANS THE TARGETS WILL BE CHOSEN IN THE CIVILIAN AREAS.

THIS IS PART AND PARCEL OF WHY THERE IS SO MUCH CIVILIAN DAMAGE, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE SMART BOMB AGE AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, WE KILL AND LITERALLY BURNED TO DEATH NEARLY 200 GIRLS -- WE HAD THEM MULTIPLE TIMES, NOT JUST ONCE, WITH THE TOMAHAWKS.

THIS IS NOW FUEL FOR THE NATIONALIST FIRE.

THIS MAKES IT -- THE SUPREME LEADERS IN IRAN TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS BUT WE CAN TRY TO DUCK IT AND DOWNPLAY IT.

THAT IS NOT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN IRAN WITH THE TARGET GOVERNMENT AND ALSO ACROSS THE GCC BECAUSE OTHER STATES ARE SEEING THAT WHEN WE GET INVOLVED IN THESE PRECISION WARS, THEY ARE ANYTHING BUT PURELY SURGICAL.

THERE IS LOTS OF DAMAGE AND NOW THERE IS ANGER THAT IS BUILDING IN IRAN AND THE SUPREME LEADER SAID THEY WANT PAYBACK.

WELL, WHAT IS AN EYE FOR AN EYE?

A CIVILIAN AIRLINER.

WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THERE IS ABOUT 200 PEOPLE IN A CIVILIAN AIRLINER.

WE JUST KILLED 200 PEOPLE.

WE WILL CERTAINLY BE ANGRY AT THEM FOR DOING THAT BUT WE ARE SETTING IN TRAIN EXACTLY THE ANGER FOR HOW YOU GET INDISCRIMINATE TERRORISM AND YOU GET PEOPLE WILLING TO DIE TO KILL.

>> SO, WE HAVE HAD THESE MOMENTS WHERE EACH SIDE HAS NOW ESCALATED BECAUSE OF WHAT THE OTHER DID, WHAT THE OTHER PERCEIVES THE FIRST ONE DID, ET CETERA.

BUT, THERE IS A MOMENT WHEN THE PRESIDENT ON FEBRUARY 28, HE TOLD IRANIANS, HE SAID TAKE OVER YOUR GOVERNMENT.

IT WILL BE YOURS TO TAKE.

IS THERE ANY EXAMPLE IN HISTORY WHERE AN AIR CAMPAIGN HAS LED TO A CITIZEN UPRISING TO TAKE POWER THAT HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL?

>> THE ANSWER IS NO.

NOT A SINGLE TRACE IN OVER 100 YEARS.

BOMBING TO WIN COVERS EVERY AIR CAMPAIGN FROM HERE TO WORLD WAR I AND MANY ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS, PROBABLY ABOUT 40 CASES, WE ARE 0 FOR 40.

THIS IS RARE.

RARELY DO YOU GET IN ANYTHING, MUCH LESS MILITARY OPERATIONS, LITERALLY 100% OF A PATTERN BUT THAT IS WHAT YOU HAVE HERE.

WHAT DID WE SEE IN THE CASE OF IRAN?

WAS IRAN LIKELY TO BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE, FOR EXAMPLE?

THERE IS SOMETHING EXCEPTIONAL HERE.

IN THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY, IRAN MURDERED SOME 20 TO 30,000 OF THE PROTESTERS AS THEY TOOK TO THE STREETS.

WHAT THE IRANIANS SHOWED WAS THEIR SECURITY FORCES WERE BOTH PLENTY CAPABLE AND PLENTY WILLING TO BE INCREDIBLY BRUTAL HERE.

WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ASKING THOSE PROTESTERS TO COME UP AND TO RISE UP, WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND, HE IS PLAYING WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.

IS LIKE A GAMBLER PLAYING WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY, OTHER PEOPLE'S LIVES.

THE PEOPLE HERE WHO HAVE TO TAKE THE RISK ARE THE IRANIANS WHO JUST SAW 20 TO 30,000 BODIES PILE UP IN THE STREETS.

THIS IS PRETTY DIFFICULT HERE.

NOW, ON TOP OF IT, THE AIR CAMPAIGN IS IMPOSING ALL KINDS OF COSTS KILLING THE GIRLS THAT WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.

NOW, THERE IS ALL KINDS OF DISRUPTION TO THE ECONOMY.

THAT PRICE IS BEING PAID BY THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, NOT BY THE LEADERS AND WE CAN SAY, WELL, THEY WILL BLAME THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT FOR THIS.

THEY ARE NEVER GOING TO BLAME THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT FOR THIS.

THEY ARE BLAMING THE PEOPLE DOING THE HARM.

THEY ARE GOING TO BLAME AMERICA AND ISRAEL.

>> SO, WHAT HAPPENS?

HOW DID THIS ESCALATION PLAY OUT WHERE NOW YOU HAVE THE ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD, SO TO SPEAK, INVOLVED.

IRAN HAS LOBBED MISSILES AT DUBAI AND ABU DHABI AND THE EMIRATES ARE ON EDGE AND THEN YOU'VE GOT SLIGHT PATHS BEING DIVERTED OVER COUNTRIES AND, OF COURSE, AN ABSOLUTE BOTTLENECK AND CHOKEHOLD OF GLOBAL OIL FLOWING BACK AND FORTH.

>> THAT POINT YOU MADE, WE ARE HEADING TO STAGE THREE OF THE TRAP WHICH WILL BE WHEN THE TRAP REALLY CLOSES AND WE ARE LIKELY IN THE FOR MONTHS' LONG WAR HERE.

SO, WHY IS THAT?

AS I HAVE BEEN LAYING OUT, INTO STAGE TWO, THERE IS NOT JUST A -FOR-TAT .

THAT IS GOING ON BUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THAT IS WHAT IS SPECIAL ABOUT THIS CASE.

FOR 50 YEARS, AMERICA'S NUMBER 1:THE MIDDLE EAST HAS BEEN TO PREVENT AN OIL HEGEMON IN THE MIDDLE EAST, NOT ISRAEL.

ISRAEL COULD MAYBE HELP WITH THAT BUT ISRAEL WAS NOT NUMBER ONE.

PREVENTING OIL HEGEMON.

WHAT IS AN OIL HEGEMON?

ONE COUNTRY, WHETHER IT IS THE SOVIET UNION AND THE COLD WAR, IRAQ, OR NOW IRAN, CONTROLLING THE OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

THAT IS THE PERSIAN GULF, THAT IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

NOW, IRAN HAS NEVER BEEN AN OIL HEGEMON BEFORE, NOW IT IS AND THAT IS 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL IS MORE THAN THE 16% AMERICA PRODUCES.

NOW, THEY ARE IN CHARGE OF OIL PRICES MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE AND THEY ARE LEVERAGING THAT FOR GEOPOLITICAL GAIN, LET'S SAY THE INDIANS AND SO FORTH.

THEY ARE ALSO MAKING MONEY.

THEY HAVE MADE ABOUT 1,000,000,000 1/2 DOLLARS SO FAR HERE ON THIS OIL.

THE MONEY IS IN CHINESE BANKS THAT WE CAN'T GO TAKE IT OUT AND IF THIS GOES ON FOR ANOTHER SIX WEEKS, ANOTHER SIX MONTHS, THEY ARE AN OIL HEGEMON WITH ALL OF THE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, THE BALANCE OF POWER IS REALLY GOING TO CHANGE HERE.

THE OTHER MILITARY SHOE TO FALL WHICH IS STAGE THREE IS THE GROUND OPERATIONS.

THOSE MARINES ARE MOVING.

THE 82nd AIRBORNE IS PREPARING AND THIS WOULD BE STAGE THREE.

THIS IS THE THRESHOLD OF STAGE THREE.

THEY ARE NOT THERE YET.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER 10 DAYS, 14 DAYS BEFORE THE BEGINNING FORCES ARE IN PLACE.

IN THAT PERIOD OF TIME, WE WILL SEE A LOT OF BACK AND FORTH.

I'M HOPING WE WILL FIND A WAY OUT SO WE DON'T CROSS STAGE THREE BUT IF WE CROSS STAGE THREE, POLITICS WILL CHANGE AGAIN.

THIS ISN'T JUST ABOUT MILITARY ACTION.

WHEN THOSE MARINES HIT THE BEACHES, MANY WILL DIE.

WHEN THEY DIE, MANY WHO ARE TRUMP SUPPORTERS WILL DOUBLE DOWN THEIR SUPPORT.

THEY DON'T WANT TO SAY THESE PEOPLE DIED FOR US AND NOW WE ARE GOING TO ABANDON THEM.

>> YOU THINK WE ARE JUST A COUPLE WEEKS AWAY FROM STAGE THREE?

>> WE ARE JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AWAY FROM STAGE THREE WHICH, I ALWAYS SAID -- AGAIN, I PUBLISHED ALL THREE STAGES BEFORE THE FIRST BOMB FELL.

I ALWAYS SAID TO STAGE THREE WOULD BE, QUOTE, LIMITED TERRITORIAL CONTROL.

IT WOULD INVOLVE THE MARINES, MAYBE SOME AIRBORNE.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IS THERE WOULD BE COASTAL AREAS.

MAYBE WE ARE GOING TO GO INTO SOME OF THE NUCLEAR SITES.

I MADE ALL OF THIS OUT THE DAYS BEFORE THE BOMBING AND THAT IS NOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING, QUOTE, PREPARING FOR.

THE PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THESE PREPARATIONS MAY WELL BECOME REALITY BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO WALK AWAY AND LEAVE IRAN IN CONTROL OF THAT MUCH POWER.

>> FOR THE RECORD, THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID, LAST WEEK, I AM NOT PUTTING TROOPS ANYWHERE AND IF I WAS, I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T TELL YOU.

IS THERE A WAY TO WITHDRAW FROM THIS WITHOUT TROOPS ON THE GROUND?

>> THERE IS STILL DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS HERE BUT THE PRICE IS GOING UP HIGH AND I AM NOT SURE PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL PAY THE PRICE.

YOU SEE, BEFORE THE FIRST BOMB FELL, THERE WAS -- IRAN WAS WILLING TO HAVE A DEAL AND THIS WAS BEING EXPLAINED TO TRUMP IN THE OVAL OFFICE BY HIS NEGOTIATORS AND THE DEAL WAS IRAN WOULD KEEP THE 3.5% ENRICHED URANIUM.

TRUMP SAID NO DEAL.

HE IS GOING TO DO THE BOMBING.

NOW, IRAN, BECAUSE IT IS MORE POWERFUL -- IT IS NOT WEAKER.

IT IS GOING TO WANT MORE.

IT IS GOING TO WANT THE 3% ENRICHED URANIUM.

WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE FIRST WEEK IS THEY ARE GOING TO WANT OIL SANCTIONS LIFTED.

THEY HAVE ALREADY GOT THE 3.5%.

NOW THEY'VE ALREADY GOT THE OIL SANCTIONS.

THEY ARE GOING TO WANT MORE AND WHAT IS THAT MORE?

PROBABLY MILITARY CONTAINMENT OF ISRAEL.

>> ON THE ONE HAND, THE PRESIDENT OF THE ADMINISTRATION SAID WE HAD, QUOTE, OBLITERATED THE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY AND THE FACILITIES IN IRAN AND THEN BEFORE THIS CAMPAIGN, THAT WAS ALSO IN PART THE JUSTIFICATION THAT WE WANT TO REALLY PREVENT THEM.

>> THAT IS RIGHT.

I HAVE MODELED THE BOMBING OF IRAN FOR 20 YEARS.

AMERICANS ARE GOING TO BOMB IN THE TIME.

IS REALLY CAN'T DO THAT.

THEY DON'T HAVE THE AIRPOWER TO BE ABLE TO TAKE OUT.

WE ARE GOING TO TAKE IT OUT.

WHEN WE DO, WE DISABLE THE INDUSTRIAL FACILITY BUT WE DON'T GET THE NUCLEAR MATERIAL.

ON TOP OF THAT, THE IAEA IS NEVER BROUGHT BACK IN.

IRAN IS NOT GOING TO JUST OPEN THIS BACKUP TO ON-SITE INSPECTION, GIVE IT UP AND SO FORTH.

THEY ARE ANGRY.

WE SAW THAT RIGHT AWAY, EVEN THOUGH PRESIDENT TRUMP DECLARED OBLITERATED THE PROGRAM, HE BEGAN NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN AGAIN.

WHY?

BECAUSE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL.

SO, MY ANALYSIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN ABOUT A YEAR LATER YOU WOULD PANIC.

THAT IS THE FIRST MATERIAL.

YOU WOULD NEVER REALLY KNOW IF IT WAS BEING FASHIONED INTO A NUCLEAR WEAPON OR A RADIOLOGICAL BOMB.

YOU WOULD DO REGIME CHANGE.

BOMBING FOR REGIME CHANGE WAS ALWAYS STAGE TO.

I SAID, THIS IS HOW AMERICA WILL TALK ITSELF INTO THE REGIME CHANGE WAR, WHICH THEY HAVE RESISTED FOR DECADES.

THEY WILL FIRST START BY BOMBING AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED AND THAT IS WHY I COULD PUBLISH THE STAGES OF THE ESCALATION THAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH DAYS BEFORE WE DID THIS BOMBING ON FEBRUARY 28.

THAT IS WHY I WAS CONFIDENT IN WHAT THE TARGET SET WOULD BE.

THIS WAS ALWAYS, ALWAYS THE STAGES YOU WOULD GO THROUGH ONCE YOU KNOCKED OUT IN JUNE.

YOU KNOCKED OUT THE FACILITY, NOT THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

IT IS ALWAYS ABOUT THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

>> UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE ROBERT PATE AND AUTHOR OF THE ESCALATION TRAP SUBSTACK.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.