>>> HELLO, EVERYONE.

WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY."

HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.

FRANCE'S FAR RIGHT LEADER, FOUND GUILTY OF EMBEZZLEMENT AND LE PEN WAS BARRED FROM RUNNING IN THE NEXT ELECTION.

HOW THE RULING IS A PENDING FRENCH POLITICS.

>>> AS A TOP VACCINE OFFICIAL IS FORCED OUT OF THE FDA, IS THE U.S. AT WAR WITH VACCINES AND WHAT COULD BE THE GLOBAL IMPACT?

I SPEAK TO CEO OF GARVEY, THE VACCINE ALLIANCE, AND AHEAD -- >>> WALL STREET SINKS AS THE WORLD BRACES FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF TRUMP'S TRADE WAR.

WHAT IS NEXT WITH GEO STRATEGIST TINA FORDHAM.

>>> AND -- >> UNDER TRUMP, A MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE USE OF TARIFFS LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE ECONOMIC WARFARE AND LESS LIKE A TOOL OF STANDARD ECONOMIC POLICY.

>> FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, TELLS MICHELLE MARTIN HOW TRUMP'S USE OF TARIFFS IS TESTING THE LIMITS OF AMERICAN POWER >>> "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, THE SYLVIA A.

AND SIMON B.

PROGRAMMING AND BAILMENT TO FIGHT ANTI- SEMITISM, THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LAYLA AND NIKKI STRAUSS, MARK J. GLESSNER, FELDMAN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION, PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANTZ COONEY FUND, PATRICIA EWING, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN COMMUNITIES, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, JEFFREY KATZ AND BETH ROGERS, AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE, IN NEW YORK CITY, IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, GUILTY, FRENCH POLITICIAN MARINE LE PEN, CONVICTED OF EMBEZZLING MORE THAN 4 MILLION OF EUROPEAN UNION FUNDS, WHICH MEANS SHE FACES POTENTIAL YEARS BEHIND BARS.

100,000 EURO FINE AND, PERHAPS, MORE CLOSELY, AN IMMEDIATE BAN FROM RUNNING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE.

THIS MEANS THAT PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE WILL NO LONGER BE ALLOWED TO RUN IN THE NEXT ELECTION IN 2027.

IF SHE IS UNABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY APPEAL HER VERDICT, SOMETHING SHE HAS VOWED TO DO.

IT IS A SHOCKWAVE FOR FRENCH POLITICS.

LE PEN HAS RUN FOR THE PRESIDENCY IN EVERY ELECTION SINCE 2012 WITH HER SUPPORT SWELLING IN RECENT YEARS.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN NOT JUST FOR FRIENDS OR EUROPE, BUT FOR THE WORLD?

JOINING ME NOW ON THIS, VETERAN FRENCH REPORTER TERRY ARNAUD AND NATALIE TOCCI, FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR FORMERLY FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION.

WELCOME, BOTH.

TERRY, FIRST YOUR REACTION.

OBVIOUSLY, A LOT OF BUILDUP AND ANTICIPATION IN THIS CASE.

ULTIMATELY, THE JUDGE'S RULING, WERE YOU SURPRISED, HOWEVER, WITH THE DECISION THE JUDGE ULTIMATELY REACHED?

>> CONSIDERING ALL OF THE PROSECUTION TO PUT FORWARD, INITIALLY, THE RESULT DOESN'T COME AS A SURPRISE.

THE QUESTION WAS WHETHER THEY WERE GOING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF PUTTING A PERSON WHO IS, IN FACT, A RUNAWAY FAVORITE FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN A POSITION -- BECAUSE SHE CANNOT RUN WITH ALL THE CONSEQUENCES THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY --THEY DECIDED THAT THEY WOULD JUDGE THE CASE ON THE MERIT.

THE DECISION IS VERY SEVERE.

AS YOU SAID, IT HAS AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT, BUT TO ME, IT IS NOT A SURPRISE.

>> DOES IT SURPRISE YOU, THOUGH, THAT THE PARTY HAD NO REAL CONTINGENCY PLANS, GIVEN WE HAVE KNOW NOW FOR A FEW MONTHS WHAT THE PROSECUTION WAS ASKING FOR, IN TERMS OF A LEADER WHO WOULD REPLACE MARINE LE PEN IF, IN FACT, SHE CANNOT BE THE FACE OF THE PARTY AND RUN IN THE ELECTION?

AS YOU KNOW, THERE IS A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER JORDAN BARDELLA HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO LEAVE THE PARTY, WHETHER HE IS EXPERIENCED ENOUGH AND HIS YOUNG AGE.

>> YES.

IT IS A SURPRISE TO SOME EXTENT, BUT YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT, HAD SHE BEEN IN A POSITION TO WORK ON THE PLAN B AND DEMONSTRATING THAT SHE WAS WORKING ON A PLAN B, IN A SENSE, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN AN ADMISSION OF DEFEAT BEFORE TODAY'S DECISION.

SO, THE COURT DECIDED TO FOLLOW, WOULD BE DETERMINED TO SAYING THAT SHE WAS HOPING THAT SHE WAS GOING TO BE INNOCENT, BUT SHE COULDN'T IMAGINE FOR A SECOND THAT SHE WAS GUILTY OF ANYTHING, AND THEREFORE, THE DECISION TODAY, WOULD COME HER WAY, AND YOU CAN ARGUE, IT IS MAY BE SOME SORT OF DENIAL IN A WAY, BUT FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT, IT WAS FROM, HER PERSPECTIVE, THE BEST POSSIBLE STRATEGY.

>> NATALIE, IN NO SURPRISE, MARINE LE PEN --WE SEE HER WALKING OUT BEFORE THE JUDGE EVEN RULED IN THE CASE --NO SURPRISE AS TO WHAT HER REACTION HAS BEEN, AND THAT IS CALLING THIS A WITCH HUNT.

I SAID THAT BECAUSE THAT IS ALMOST THE EXACT SAME LANGUAGE SHE USED DESCRIBING A SIMILAR CASE BACK IN 2017, ALSO AS A POLITICALLY MOTIVATED ATTACK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR.

LET'S PLAY SOUND FROM THAT INTERVIEW.

>> YOU'RE BEING ASKED AS THE PARTY, FOR NATIONAL, TO REPAY NEARLY 300,000 EUROS TO, I BELIEVE THE EU, BECAUSE OF WHAT THEY ARE SAYING AS AN INVESTIGATION INTO FRAUD, INTO CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FRAUD BECAUSE OF TWO ASSISTANTS WHO HAD BEEN PAID THAT THEY ARE INVESTIGATING, SAYING, IT IS NOT QUITE WHAT IT SEEMS?

ARE YOU ABLE TO REPAY NEARLY 300,000?

[ SPEAKING IN A NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE ] >> Translator: NOT AT ALL.

THIS IS A POLITICAL ATTACK, IT IS INADMISSIBLE.

WE HAVE BEEN PERSECUTED BY THE EU PARLIAMENT.

THEY ARE AN ADVERSARY.

>> NATALIE, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT DEFENSE?

>> I THINK THIS IS REALLY A PART OF A VERY STANDARD TABLE THAT THE FAR RIGHT HAS USED, WHICH HAS REALLY SEEN AS THE MAIN POLITICAL OPPONENTS, EVEN MORE THAN OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES, STATE INSTITUTIONS AND, IN PARTICULAR, THE JUDICIARY, AND AN INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY, AND THE WAY OF UNDERMINING THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY IS BY ATTACKING THE JUDICIARY, ACCUSING IT OF BEING POLITICIZED.

IN A SENSE, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT, NOT ONLY THAT WAS HER RESPONSE BACK THEN, BUT THAT THIS WILL BE THE RESPONSE FROM, NOW WHAT?

NOW, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, AS THIS TRIAL WILL MOVE INTO ITS APPEAL PHASE, THE QUESTION REALLY WILL BE WHEN THE JUDICIARY WILL CONTINUE TO ABIDE BY THE LANGUAGE OF WHAT WAS DECIDED IN THIS FIRST JUDGMENT, OR WHETHER, INDEED, THOSE POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

IN A SENSE, IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THE ASSUMPTION WAS THAT THEY WOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BECAUSE, OF COURSE, WHO WAS MAKING THOSE PRESUMPTIONS?

PRECISELY FORCES WHO I DON'T, SAY, LOOK AT THE JUDICIARY AS SOMETHING THAT REALLY SOUNDS, ASIDE FROM POLITICS, IS REALLY LOOKED AT AS A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT.

>> TERRY, THE DECIDING JUDGE HERE, THE RULING JUDGE, SAID THIS TODAY, SHE SAID, SHE AND HER FELLOW JUDGES HAD WEIGHED THE QUOTE, TWO RISKS IN THE SENTENCING, THE RISK OF A PERSON CONVICTED OF EMBEZZLEMENT BEING ELECTED FOR OFFICE AND THE, QUOTE, MAJOR RISK TO PUBLIC ORDER IF A LIKELY POTENTIAL CANDIDATE WAS BANNED FROM RUNNING.

CLEARLY, THEY WEIGHED HEAVILY ON WHAT WAS AT STAKE HERE AND ULTIMATELY STILL ROLLED THE WAY THEY DID, BUT OF COURSE, YOU HAVE PARTY LEADERS, NOT JUST MARINE LE PEN, CALLING THIS, INCLUDING BARDELLA, CALLING THIS AN ATTACK OF FRENCH DEMOCRACY BEING EXECUTED HERE.

DO YOU THINK THAT THIS WILL HOLD UP AMONG HER SUPPORTERS, AMONG THE PARTY'S SUPPORTERS AND, PERHAPS, THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN UNDECIDED UP UNTIL THIS POINT?

>> YES.

I THINK IT WILL.

I THINK YOUR QUESTION FOR HER IS REALLY MORE A LEGAL ONE.

I WAS GOING TO SAY, LEGALLY, TECHNICAL ONE, WHETHER SHE CAN HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO APPEAL, WHETHER TO TIMETABLE, WE WILL ALLOW HER TO GO THIS FAR, WITH THE DECISION ON APPEAL WOULD BE CUTTING HER SENTENCE IN SUCH A WAY THAT SHE WOULD BE ABLE TO RUN AGAIN, BUT I THINK HER SUPPORTERS WILL BE BEHIND HER, ONE 100%, AND YOU CAN SEE THAT, EVEN FOR THOSE TO WHOM THE EVIDENCE WAS CLEAR AND OVERWHELMING, ESPECIALLY FOR TODAY'S DECISION, THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS ARE A PROBLEM, AND THAT INCLUDES CURRENT PRIME MINISTER, FOR EXAMPLE, SOMEONE WHO IS AN OPPONENT OF MARINE LE PEN, BUT REALIZES THAT HE IS NOT IN A POSITION TO RUN, THEN IT IS A PROBLEM FOR THE WEIGHT DEFENSE DEMOCRACY IS WORKING, AND NOT ONLY IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE 2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT LET'S NOT FORGET THAT WE ARE IN A VERY UNSTABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN FRANCE AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO CLEAR MAJORITY, AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS MARINE LE PEN IS ALSO IN A POSITION TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT, AS YOU MIGHT DECIDE, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY, SHE WILL BE MORE INCLINED TO DO THAT.

NOW, ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF TODAY'S DECISION IS THAT SHE CANNOT RUN FOR ANY PUBLIC OFFICE.

NOT ONLY UNDER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT IF, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU WOULD IMAGINE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE PARLIAMENT IS DISSOLVED IN THE SUMMER AND THERE IS A NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THEN SHE CANNOT RUN --OR A PARLIAMENTARY SEAT AS WELL --YOU SEE BOTH LIMITED AND QUITE COMPLICATED -- >> THE REAL TEST FOR JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE AND INTEGRITY IS NOT JUST FOCUSED IN FRANCE.

THIS IS A CONVERSATION BEING HAD IN MANY COUNTRIES THROUGHOUT EUROPE AND HERE, IN THE UNITED STATES AS WELL, WHERE YOU HAVE POLITICAL LEADERS REALLY ATTACKING THE JUDICIARY PERSONALLY.

PERSONAL ATTACKS, NOT JUST TRADITIONALLY WHAT WOULD AMOUNT TO AN APPEAL, BUT GOING A STEP FURTHER AND SAYING THAT THIS WAS A ROGUE JUDGE, A WITCH HUNT, HAS BEEN DESCRIBED BY MARINE LE PEN, NATALIE, THERE IS SUPPORT RIGHT AWAY AFTER THIS DECISION WAS RULED UPON BY SOME OF HER SUPPORTERS AND ALLIES IN FAR RIGHT PARTIES THROUGHOUT EUROPE, IN HUNGARY, VICTOR OR BONNIE POSTED ON X, MARINE, ITALIAN FAR RIGHT LEADER ALSO VOICED HIS SUPPORT AND EVEN THE KREMLIN, WEIGHING IN, SAYING, HER CONVICTION SHOWED EUROPE WAS, QUOTE, TRAMPLING ON DEMOCRATIC NORMS.

LET'S NOT FORGET WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES A FEW WEEKS AGO, WHEN HE WAS IN MUNICH AS WELL, REALLY QUESTIONING EUROPEAN JUDICIARY DECISIONS.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS DO YOU FEEL?

>> YEAH.

YOU KNOW, I THINK IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT --IT WILL NOT BE EASY --TO MAKE CERTAIN DISTINCTIONS.

LET'S JUST TAKE, YOU KNOW, TWO CASES, WHICH ARE, YOU KNOW, ON THE SURFACE, COULD LOOK SIMILAR, BUT IN PRACTICE, THERE REALLY DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE.

LET'S SAY, WHAT WAS JUST HAPPENED IN FRANCE AND WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN TURKEY -- RIGHT --WHERE THE MAIN LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, THE ONLY REAL CANDIDATE THAT COULD ACTUALLY BEAT HIM IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT HAS BEEN IN PRISON ALSO ON THE BASIS OF CORRUPTION, QUOTE UNQUOTE, AND IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT, WHEREAS IN THE FRENCH CASE, THIS IS THE STORY OF AN INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY THAT, RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, IT'S SO INDEPENDENT AND SO, IN A SENSE, NOT WANTING TO MEDDLE IN POLITICS, TO SING, WE MUST LOOK AT THE CASE ON ITS MERIT.

PERHAPS THIS MAY POLITICALLY BACKFIRE BECAUSE YOU CAN ACTUALLY GALVANIZE SUPPORT FOR THE FAR RIGHT EVEN MORE.

RIGHT?

WE DON'T KNOW.

CERTAINLY, THE CASE WILL BE MADE BY THAT FAR RIGHT THAT THIS IS A POLITICALLY MOTIVATED TRIAL, AS OPPOSED TO THE CASE IN TURKEY, WHERE IT IS ACTUALLY THE EXECUTIVE POWER, I.E., IT IS THE PRESIDENCY THAT HAS ALREADY POLITICIZED THE JUDICIARY, AND IS USING THE JUDICIARY AS A LETTER SIZED INSTRUMENT TO EXCLUDE THE OPPOSITION FROM POLITICAL POWER.

SO, THESE ARE TWO SITUATIONS WHICH, IN ACTUAL FACT, ARE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE, GIVEN THE SITUATION OR THE ROLE OF THE JUDICIARY IN THESE RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES, BUT THE WAY IN WHICH THEY ARE GOING TO BE PORTRAYED, AS I SAID, THE WAY THEY ARE GOING TO BE USED TO GALVANIZE SUPPORT FOR THE FAR RIGHT IS ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR.

>> TERRY, I'M GOING TO ASK YOU THE FINAL QUESTION HERE, AND THAT IS FROM A HEADLINE OF CNN.

COM, REPORTING ON THIS STORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT MARINE LE PEN, WHO SEEMS POLITICALLY DEAD, CAN THE FAR RIGHT, NOW, IN FRANCE, GO ON WITHOUT HER?

>> FIRST OF ALL, I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT SHE IS POLITICALLY DEAD AS I WAS SAYING, THE PATH FOR CANDIDACY IS VERY, VERY, VERY NARROW, BUT IT STILL EXISTS.

I THINK SHE WILL TRY EVERYTHING --TO THROW EVERYTHING AT IT IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO, YOU KNOW, PUSH THROUGH AND BE A CANDIDATE IN 2027.

IF SHE CAN'T, THE ISSUE WILL COME AS TO WHO WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE OVER FROM HER, THEN HE WILL SEE A BIG FIGHT BETWEEN JORDAN BARDELLA, OFFICIALLY THE END OF THE PARTY EVEN THOUGH SHE IS REALLY RUNNING THE SHOW, THE MORE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES ON THE RIGHT, THE LIKES OF RETAILLEAU, WHICH WILL TRY TO OCCUPY THE SPACE THAT SHE WILL HAVE LEFT.

SO, THERE WILL BE A CANDIDATE, YOU KNOW, THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT, RUNNING ON A PLATFORM THAT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO HERS.

WHETHER IT WILL BE HER OR SOMEBODY ELSE IS A QUESTION TO BE, YOU KNOW, DECIDED OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTH OR YEARS.

BUT I THINK THE AMOUNT OF POPULARITY SHE HAS BEEN GETTING NOT ONLY HER AS A PERSON, BUT FOR HER PLATFORM AND IDEAS, WILL -- IS HERE TO STAY -- AND WILL BE REPRESENTED ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN FRANCE.

>> YOU KNOW, TERRY, DON'T COUNT HER OUT JUST YET.

WE WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS STORY.

TERRY ARNAULT, NATALIE TOCCI, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING THE PROGRAM.

>>> NEXT, MISINFORMATION AND LIES ARE THE WORDS OF THE TOP VACCINE OFFICIAL AT THE U.S. FDA AIMED DIRECTLY AT RFK JR. DR. PETER MARKS, SLAMMING THE USL SECRETARY FOR TRYING TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHAT HE CALLS SUBSERVIENCE, WHILE UNDERMINING COPPER TENTS AND WELL-ESTABLISHED VACCINES.

THIS PUBLIC CONDEMNATION COMES AS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONTINUES ITS ASSAULT ON VACCINES.

ACCORDING TO REPORTS, IT NOW INTENDS TO TERMINATE ITS SUPPORT FOR AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, GAVI, THAT FOR 25 YEARS, HAS HELPED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PURCHASE LIFE-SAVING VACCINES.

JOINING ME NOW ON THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF CERTAIN MOVIES DR. SANIA NISHTAR, CEO OF GAVI, THE VACCINE ALLIANCE.

DR., THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME, DR. NISHTAR.

AS WE NOTE, DR. PETER MARKS, TOP VACCINE OFFICIAL, GIVEN TWO OPTIONS, BEING FIRED OR RESIGNED.

HE TOOK THE LATTER.

IN HIS PARTING STATEMENT, HE SAID, THE U.S. HEALTH SECRETARY IS, QUOTE, UNDERMINING CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ESTABLISHED VACCINES, WHICH HE SAYS IS A COMICAL, CLEAR DANGER TO OUR NATION'S HEALTH, SAFETY, AND SECURITY YOU ARE IN WASHINGTON NOW, COINCIDENTLY, AS YOU ARE TRYING TO SECURE FUNDING FOR GAVI.

I'M WONDERING, YOUR REACTION TO THIS NEWS, AND WHAT MESSAGE, IF ANY, YOU HAVE TO HEALTH OFFICIALS WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VACCINES, WELL-ESTABLISHED VACCINES, FOR VIRUSES NOW SPREADING IN THIS COUNTRY, AND OF COURSE, VIRUSES TO COME?

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

WE HEARD, A FEW DAYS AGO, THERE WAS A LIST CIRCULATING ON WHICH GAVI, THE VACCINE ALLIANCE, WAS LISTED IN A CATEGORY WHERE THE ADMINISTRATION INTENDED TO TERMINATE THE CONTRACTS.

NOW, THIS CAME AS QUITE A SHOCK TO US, BECAUSE WE HAVE ENJOYED SUPPORT FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE IN THE U.S., INCLUDING STRONG SUPPORT DURING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LAST PRESIDENCY, AND IN FACT, WE WERE LOOKING FORWARD TO ENGAGING WITH THE ADMINISTRATION TO DISCUSS WAYS OF OPERATIONALIZING THE BUDGET, WHICH THE CONGRESS APPROVED A FEW DAYS AGO, SO THIS NEWS AND THIS LIST CAME AS A SHOCK TO US.

IT IS DISTURBING.

WHICH IS WHY I AM HERE, THIS WEEK, TO TALK TO THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION AND THE MEMBERS OF THE CONGRESS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORK GAVI DOES.

>> TELL ME AND OUR VIEWERS MORE ABOUT THE WORK THAT GAVI IS DOING.

>> WELL, GAVI VACCINATES CHILDREN AROUND THE WORLD.

WE PROVIDE ACCESS TO VACCINES FOR COUNTRIES THAT WOULD NOT OTHERWISE BE ABLE TO ACCESS VACCINES.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE- YEAR PERIOD, WE PLAN TO VACCINATE 500 MILLION CHILDREN.

GIVEN THAT THE U.S. UNDERWRITES AROUND 50% OF OUR BUDGET, IF THE U.S. MOVES OUT, THIS MEANS REDUCED ABILITY TO VACCINATE 75 MILLION CHILDREN.

THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO AROUND 1.3 MILLION DEATHS OF BABIES FROM VACCINE PREVENTABLE DISEASES.

THE OTHER IMPORTANT AREA OF OUR WORK RELATES TO DISEASE SECURITY.

LET ME EXPLAIN WHAT I MEAN BY THAT.

IF OUR FUNDING IS REDUCED BY 50%, THIS WILL REDUCE OUR ABILITY TO CONTAIN OUTBREAKS.

VACCINES ARE THE FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST OUTBREAKS, BECAUSE GAVI MAINTAINS THE STOCK PRICE OF VACCINES.

WE HAVE SPECIAL FUNDING INSTRUMENTS, WHICH MAKE MONEY AVAILABLE, ALLOWING US TO ACT VERY QUICKLY, AND IF THAT ABILITY IS WATERED DOWN, IF THAT ABILITY IS COMPROMISED, IT MEANS DISEASES LIKE EBOLA WILL REACH THE UNITED STATES VERY READILY.

SO, THESE ARE TWO VERY IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF OUR WORK, AND OUR WORK ALSO DEEPLY MATTERS FOR THE UNITED STATES INDUSTRY.

FOR EXAMPLE, WE PROCURE $4 BILLION WORTH OF VACCINES FROM THE UNITED STATES OVER A 5-YEAR STRATEGY PERIOD.

WHEREAS, OVER THE SAME STRATEGY PERIOD, THE UNITED STATES CONTRIBUTOR AROUND $1 BILLION IN THE STRATEGY PERIOD, AROUND $1 BILLION TOWARDS OUR OVERALL BUDGET, AND ON THE OTHER HAND, WE PROCURED $4 BILLION WORTH OF VACCINES.

WE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE U.S. ECONOMY AS WELL, AND ALL THESE ABILITIES WILL BE --WILL BE REDUCED -- IF THE U.S. FUNDING IS PULLED OUT.

>> IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE, DOCTOR, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT DISEASES THAT ARE IN OTHER COUNTRIES RIGHT NOW, THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY, REALLY, THREATENING THE UNITED STATES AT SOME POINT, SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, IF THEY'RE NOT DEALT WITH AND ERADICATED AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IN THEIR CURRENT LOCATION, BUT GIVEN THAT WE ALREADY HAVE A VERY SERIOUS, DEADLY DISEASE OUTBREAK HERE, IN THE UNITED STATES --I'M SPEAKING OF MEASLES --WHICH HAS HAD A LONG AND AND SAFE VACCINE READILY AVAILABLE, I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE FROM YOU WHAT I JUST HEARD FROM DR. PAUL OFFUTT, RENOWNED DOCTOR, PEDIATRICIAN AT CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL IN PHILADELPHIA, WHEN I SPOKE TO HIM IN THE LAST HOUR ABOUT DR. MARKS RESIGNING FROM HIS POST AT THE FDA, AND HERE IS WHAT HE SAID.

HE SAID, MARKS KNOWS THAT THE CURRENT MEASLES EPIDEMIC IS MUCH WORSE THAN CLAIMED AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILD DEATH SOON, AND HIS ARGUMENT IS HE BELIEVES THAT LEADERSHIP, AND HHS, DOESN'T WANT TO HEAR THIS.

ARE YOU FACING AN UPHILL BATTLE IN TRYING TO GET FUNDING FOR GAVI WHEN YOU SEE THE REACTION AND THE RESPONSE OR MAYBE LACK THEREOF AT THE RATE THAT IT SHOULD BE A DISEASE THAT IS ALREADY SPREADING IN THE U.S.?

>> WE DON'T WORK IN THE UNITED STATES.

WE WORK IN THE POOREST COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD, AND OF COURSE, WHEN CONFIDENCE IN ROUTINE VACCINATION IS COMPROMISED, FAMILIES TEND NOT TO VACCINATE THEIR CHILDREN.

OUTBREAKS OF MEASLES LIKE A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE BASICALLY TELL YOU THAT ROUTINE IMMUNIZATION IS NOT AS EFFECTIVE AS IT SHOULD BE.

BUT, I WANT TO TELL YOU THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STORY, WE WORK WITH 57 COUNTRIES, THE POOREST COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD, AND OVER THERE, WE HAVE MORE DEMAND FROM --FOR VACCINES -- MORE DEMAND THAN WHAT SUPPLY CAN KEEP UP WITH.

GOVERNMENTS REALIZE THAT THIS IS THE BEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH, AND PARENTS REALIZE THAT THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT TOOL TO PREVENT THEIR CHILDREN FROM DYING NEEDLESSLY.

I MEAN, YOU HAVE TO BE ON THE GROUND TO REALIZE HOW IMPORTANT IT IS, WATCHING A CHILD CONVULSE WITH MALARIA IS ONE OF THE MOST HEART WRENCHING SCENES >> I WOULD IMAGINE.

THE REASON I ASKED THE QUESTION THE WAY I DID IS, I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOU WILL BE SAYING TO U.S. OFFICIALS AS YOU ARE MAKING THE CASE THAT YOU WERE SO ELOQUENTLY MAKING TO OUR AUDIENCE RIGHT NOW, WHEN YOU SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE, IN THE U.S. ITSELF, YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO TALK ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN COUNTRIES THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY.

WE ARE DEALING WITH A GROWING CRISIS IN OUR OWN COUNTRY, AND REAL CONCERN ABOUT LEADERSHIP AND VACCINE SKEPTICISM.

>> WELL, OF COURSE, WE WILL MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR THE IMPORTANCE OF VACCINES, BECAUSE VACCINES ARE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PUBLIC HEALTH TOOLS.

SINCE THE '90s, VACCINES HAVE HELPED SAVE 154 MILLION LIVES.

IT IS ONE OF THE BEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH.

IT IS FOR ALL KIND OF PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIVITIES AT THE PRIVATE HEALTHCARE LEVEL --YOU HAVE VACCINES IN COUNTRIES WHERE THERE IS NO OTHER FACILITY AVAILABLE, AND I'M TALKING A LITTLE BIT ABOUT OUR SPHERE OF INFLUENCE, PERHAPS NOT DIRECTLY ADDRESSING YOUR QUESTION, BUT THESE TWO THINGS ARE INTERLINKED.

VACCINES IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PUBLIC HEALTH TOOL, AND EVERY COUNTRY OF THE WORLD SHOULD PRIORITIZE VACCINATION, AND ROUTINE VACCINATION, AND THIS IS PART OF THE REASON WHY GAVI SHOULD BE SUPPORTED.

>> THE U.S.

CONTRIBUTE ABOUT 13% OF GAVI'S BUDGET, BUT IT IS NOT JUST THE U.S. THAT IS CUTTING BACK ON CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR ORGANIZATION.

WE'RE ALSO SEEING THE UNITED -- THE UK --YOUR LARGEST DONOR, I BELIEVE, ANNOUNCING IT WITH SLASH DEVELOPING ASSISTANCE BY 1/2 A PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP TO NOW 3% GDP.

FRANCE IS ALSO CASH-STRAPPED, QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER GERMANY CAN CONTINUE ITS COMMITMENT, WHERE IT IS NOW, TO THE W.H.O., EVEN JAPAN, RAISING SOME QUESTIONS, GIVEN THE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES THEY ARE FACING, SO, THIS IS A WORLDWIDE PHENOMENON THAT IS NOW HAPPENING.

HOW IS THIS IMPACTING YOUR WORK, AND ARE YOU NOW IN THE POSITION OF HAVING TO HAVE SIMILAR TYPES OF MEETINGS WITH WORLD LEADERS, NOT JUST HERE IN THE UNITED STATES NOW?

>> WELL, YOU ARE RIGHT THAT WE ARE AT A VERY NEW ENVIRONMENT, BUT NO OTHER SOVEREIGN DONOR HAS SIGNALED AN INTENT TO PULL OUT FROM GAVI FUNDING.

IN FACT, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE STRONG SUPPORT IN OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD THAT ARE OUR TRADITIONAL DONORS, BUT COMING TO YOUR POINT ABOUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, IT IS PRECISELY AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS THAT DONORS SHOULD MAKE CHOICES IN.

WE DO DEVELOPMENT VERY DIFFERENTLY.

GAVI'S MODEL IS ACTUALLY VERY SUITED TO A CONTEXT WHERE THE FINANCIAL SPACE IS CONSTRAINED.

I MEAN, WE HAVE A MODEL WHERE EVERYBODY PAYS.

EUROPE PAYS ITS FAIR SHARE, EUROPE UNDERWRITES 35% OF THE GAVI BUDGET THAT UNITED STATES PAYS, AROUND 15%.

COUNTRIES PAY THIS VERY IMPORTANT POINT, IN NO OTHER INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES TO COUNTRIES PAY HARD CASH TOWARDS THE COST OF THE OPERATIONS AND TOWARDS THE COST OF THE VACCINES.

IN GAVI'S MODEL, THIS IS HARDWIRED IN OUR DNA.

COUNTRIES PAY --IT IS A CLEAR PATH TOWARDS TRANSITION AND COUNTRY SUSTAINABILITY -- SINCE GAVI HAS BEEN IN OPERATION, 19 COUNTRIES HAVE GRADUATED OF GAVI'S SUPPORT.

GOING FORWARD IN OUR FIVE-YEAR STRATEGY PERIOD, COUNTRIES WILL BE UNDERWRITING 14% OF THE COST OF THEIR VACCINES.

OVER A PERIOD OF TIME, TRANSITIONING FROM SUPPORT, THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF DEVELOPMENT MODEL THAT SHOULD BE PRIORITIZED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FINANCIALLY CONSTRAINED.

I MEAN, AID IS NOT MEANT TO UNDERWRITE COSTS FOR EVER.

AID IS MEANT TO BE CATALYTIC, AND THAT IS EXACTLY HOW GAVI'S MODEL IS GROUNDED.

>> IN THE FINAL SECONDS WE HAVE, JUST TO BE CLEAR, OF ALL OF YOUR CONTRIBUTORS, IT IS ONLY THE UNITED STATES, AT THIS POINT, THAT HAS SAID THAT IT WOULD WITHHOLD AID NOW?

>> THAT IS CORRECT.

>> OKAY.

THAT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE.

THANK YOU, DR. SANIA NISHTAR, SO MUCH FOR JOINING THE PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU.

> >> NOW, THE WORLD IS BRACING FOR THE IMPACT OF A NEW PHASE OF TRUMP EYE TRADE WAR THIS WEEK.

WEDNESDAY, PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS BRANDING AS LIBERATION DAY, SWEEPING NEW TARIFFS ARE SET TO COME IN ON, WELL, ACTUALLY --WE DON'T KNOW YET -- THE WHITE HOUSE, ONLY TEASING AND WHO IS BEING TARGETED AND HOW HIGH THESE TARIFFS COULD BE.

REGARDLESS, IN ASIA, EUROPE AND ON WALL STREET, MARKETS ARE SINKING AS DREAD SETS IN.

GOLDMAN SACHS ARE RAISING THE ODDS OF A U.S.

RECESSION IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS TO 35%.

SO, HOW SHOULD ALLIES RESPOND, AND IS THERE A WAY OUT OF THIS SPIRALING TRADE WAR?

TINA FORDHAM, POLITICAL STRATEGIST FOR GLOBAL INSIGHTS, JOINS THE PROGRAM FROM LONDON.

TINA, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

THESE TARIFFS TENSIONS HAVE FILLED UP HIS FIELD $5 TRILLION IN MARKET SELLOFF IN THE PAST 6 WEEKS ALONE.

WE SHOULD NOTE, PRESIDENT TRUMP, THROUGH HIS ACTIONS, HAS LIFTED AMERICA'S EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE TO 8% FROM 2%, WHERE IT WAS LAST YEAR, THE HIGHEST IT HAS BEEN IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE WORLD WAR II.

I'M CURIOUS, WHAT ARE YOU GEARING UP FOR ONCE LIBERATION DAY, OR WEDNESDAY, COMES INTO PLAY?

>> IT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION, BECAUSE, THE SIGNALING, OR THE LACK OF SIGNALING, FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, IT REALLY HAS BUSINESSES AND HEADS OF STATE ON THE BACK FOOT.

NOBODY KNOWS WHAT TO EXPECT, WILL BABY BLANKET TARIFFS, WILL THERE BE CAR BOUNDS, AND AT THIS POINT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO CONTEXT FOR YOUR VIEWERS, THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF GEOPOLITICS.

THE DECISION, HOW AND WHETHER TO USE TARIFFS, HIS ONE INSTRUMENT OF ECONOMIC STATECRAFT, AND IT IS ONE THAT NOBODY REALLY EXPECTED TO SEE COMING FROM THE UNITED STATES AT THIS LEVEL, GIVEN THAT IT HAS BEEN THE UNITED STATES THAT CONSTRUCTED THE GLOBAL SYSTEM IN THE FIRST PLACE.

>> AND IT WAS PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT REWROTE NAFTA TO USMCA DURING HIS FIRST TERM.

I THINK MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ON BOARD FOR IT, AND WE SHOULD NOTE, PRESIDENT BIDEN DID KEEP SOME OF THE TARIFFS, SPECIFICALLY AS IT RELATED TO CHINA IN PLACE.

I THINK MANY WOULD HAVE BEEN ON BOARD IF THERE HAD BEEN MORE TARGETED PRECISION TARIFFS DIRECTED AT COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA, BUT THE FACT THAT THIS SEEMS TO BE WILLY-NILLY ACROSS THE BOARD, WITHOUT ANY RHYME OR REASON, OUR EXPECTATIONS ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT --PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ASKED ABOUT DETAILS OVER THE WEEKEND.

HERE IS WHAT HE SAID.

>> THE TARIFFS WILL BE FAR MORE GENEROUS THAN THOSE COUNTRIES WERE TO US, MEANING, THEY WILL BE KINDER THAN THOSE COUNTRIES WERE TO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OVER THE DECADES.

THEY HAVE RIPPED US OFF LIKE NO COUNTRY HAS EVER BEEN RIPPED OFF IN HISTORY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE MUCH NICER THAN THEY WERE TO US.

BUT IT IS SUBSTANTIAL MONEY FOR THE COUNTRY.

>> BY THE WAY, THESE ARE TARIFFS WE ARE EXPECTING TO BE ON FRIEND AND FOE, ACROSS NUMEROUS COUNTRIES.

WHAT DO YOU MEAN?

WHAT DO YOU THINK HE MEANS, FIRST OF ALL, WHEN HE DESCRIBES THESE TARIFFS AS KINDER AND MORE GENEROUS?

>> WE KNOW THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP REALLY BELIEVES, THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN RIPPING OFF AMERICA, I THINK MOST ORTHODOX ECONOMISTS SEE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY, BUT GETTING BACK TO HOW TO INTERPRET WHAT MIGHT COME NEXT, HERE IS WHERE THE SIGNALS ARE REALLY MUDDY, AND MY WE ARE SEEING SELLOFFS IN THE MARKETS, AND WHEN IT COMES TO THINKING ABOUT EVERYTHING FROM THE OUTLOOK FOR, YOU KNOW, U.S. EQUITIES VS. EUROPEAN EQUITIES, OR INTEREST RATES, OR CONSUMER SENTIMENTS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, REALLY IN OUR LIFETIMES, IT IS COMING BACK TO GEOPOLITICS, AND TO POWER PROJECTION FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

IT IS NOT JUST THE WHAT, IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT WILL BE ANNOUNCED FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, BUT WHY IS IT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY, WHICH IS OFTEN A PRETEXT FOR TARIFFS, IS IT FOR REVENUE GENERATION, WHICH SEEMED TO BE WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS SAYING IN THE CLIP THAT YOU JUST PLAYED, AND THERE IT IS A REAL BEWILDERMENT AROUND THE WORLD AND WITH THE U.S. COMPANIES THAT WE TALK TO FOR HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF IT.

IT IS ALSO LEAVING OUT THE RISK OF RETALIATION, AND I FEEL LIKE THAT IS UNDERESTIMATED AND SOMEWHAT UNDERPRICED.

>> ON THAT POINT OF RETALIATION --I SHOULD NOTE, THIS IS CHINESE STATE MEDIA THAT IS REPORTING THIS --SO, TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS THAT JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, ARE SEEKING TO IMPORT SEMI CONDUCTOR RAW MATERIALS FROM CHINA AS SORT OF A NEW TRADING ALLIANCE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER PHRASE, IN RESPONSE TO THESE TARIFFS FROM THE UNITED STATES, AS YOU NOTED, RETALIATORY TARIFFS, AGAIN, COMING FROM CHINA STATE MEDIA WHO MAYBE WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS, BUT THE FACT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE TYPES OF NEW PARTNERSHIPS BEING CREATED SUGGESTS WHAT TO YOU?

>> WE HAVE KNOWN FOR SOME TIME THAT THE GLOBAL ORDER WAS FRAGMENTING HER BUT WE ARE NOW SEEING APPEARS TO BE THE UNITED STATES KIND OF ABDICATING THE IT IS REMOVING ITSELF FROM THE RULE-BASED ORDER, AND INEVITABLY, IN THE NATURE OF THE VACUUM -- OTHER GROUPINGS AND OTHER ALLIANCES ARE LIKELY TO COALESCE.

WHETHER THAT IS IN ASIA, WE HAVE SEEN, FOR EXAMPLE, EUROPEAN UNION SENTIMENT INCREASE.

WE ALSO SEE THINGS LIKE CONSUMER BOYCOTTS, ANTI- U.S. CONSUMER BOYCOTTS IN CANADA AND ELSEWHERE, SO THAT THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES EMERGING FROM THE CHANGES IN U. S. POLICY HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF ECLIPSING, TO SOME EXTENT, WHAT THE PRESIDENT HOPES THE TARIFFS WILL ACCOMPLISH FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY.

>> TRUMP HAS LONG BEEN ENAMORED BY TARIFFS, VIEWING THEM AS AN EFFECTIVE ECONOMIC TOOL, IN TERMS OF THE MONEY THAT HE SAYS IT IS GOING TO BRING IN.

PETER NAVARRO SAID TODAY THAT SOME $6 TRILLION OF REVENUE WILL BE COMING IN AND AS A RESULT OF THESE TARIFFS OVER THE COURSE OF 10 YEARS.

ARE TARIFFS A HISTORICALLY PROVEN, EFFECTIVE WAY TO RAISE REVENUE?

>> YOU ARE ASKING A GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST, BUT THE LAST, USED TO TARIFFS AT THIS SCALE, YOU KNOW, FAMOUSLY, WAS FOLLOWED BY THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

SO, THERE IS KIND OF A ROMANTICISM IN THIS ADMINISTRATION WITH THAT LATE 19th CENTURY, EARLY 20th CENTURY PERIOD.

PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKS ABOUT IT A LOT, ABOUT HIS AFFECTION FOR THE McKINLEY, THERE ARE REFERENCES TO THE MONROE DOCTRINE, AND MANIFEST DESTINY, YOU KNOW, THE TAKE US BACK TO THIS PERIOD, WHICH THE PRESIDENT REALLY LIONIZE HIS AS, PERHAPS, BEING THE PEAK OF U.S. POWER, IN RELATIVE TERMS, BEFORE THE WARS I DO THINK THAT MOST OF US, IN THE POLICY WORLD, IS CONCERNED THAT TURNING BACK THE CLOCK IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO WHEN FACED WITH MORE COMPETITION.

>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE POLLING AND THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATING, WHICH, AT THIS POINT, IT IS SURPRISING, GIVEN WHERE HIS FOCUS WAS ON THE STOCK MARKET AND THE ECONOMY IN HIS FIRST TERM.

HE SAYS, HE DOESN'T SEEM TO CARE ABOUT A SHORT-TERM MARKET SELLOFF.

HE SAYS, IN THE LONG RUN, THIS WILL ALL BENEFIT AMERICANS, BUT ACCORDING TO THE NEWEST POLLING, GALLUP POLL, 41% OF AMERICANS APPROVE OF HIS HANDLING, 59% DISAPPROVE.

YOU TALK TO ECONOMISTS ABOUT WHO WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY THESE TARIFFS, AND IT IS THOSE WHO ARE THE LOWER-INCOME EARNERS IN THIS COUNTRY, BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN.

AND THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION ABOUT WHAT THIS DOES FOR OUR GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS IN RELATIONSHIP, SPECIFICALLY, WITH ALLIES.

IT SEEMS TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE A TRADE WAR FROM OTHER RELATIONSHIPS AND OTHER ALLIANCES, WHETHER IT IS SHARING INTEL INFORMATION, WHETHER IT IS COLLABORATING ON OTHER PROJECTS, PERHAPS I AM WRONG, BUT CAN YOU WALK US THROUGH --HAVE WE BEEN IN A SITUATION LIKE THIS BEFORE?

>> I THINK THAT WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN UNPRECEDENTED, IN MODERN TIMES, POLITICAL EXPERIMENT.

THE VOLUNTARY DISMANTLING OF ALLIANCES, WHICH DO SPAN TRADE AND SECURITY RELATIONSHIPS -- RIGHT -- THAT IS WHAT IT MEANS TO HAVE ALLIANCES, THEY TEND TO BE COMPREHENSIVE, THE WHOLE NOTION OF NATIONAL INTERESTS, AND EVEN VALUES, ALTHOUGH, YOU KNOW, THAT HAS A HISTORY OF KIND OF WAXING AND WANING OVER TIME, SO, HOW DOES THE U.S.

DEFINE ITS NATIONAL INTERESTS AND ITS VALUES?

IT IS A SOURCE OF CONFUSION BIG HERE, IN EUROPE, AS I AM, AND AS WELL AS WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE KIND OF EXTRATERRITORIALITY SORTS OF MOVES, WHETHER THAT IS INSISTING THAT COMPANIES NOT HAVE DE AND I POLICIES ON THEIR BOOKS, OR THAT THE U.S.

NEEDS TO HAVE GREENLAND.

IT IS THIS CONFUSION ABOUT WHAT THE U.S.

STANDS FOR AND WHAT THE RULES ARE.

AND IF WE REALLY WANT TO KIND OF BRING IT HOME, IT IS, WHAT ARE THE RULES OF THE GAME, AND WHO IS PREPARED TO OBSERVE THEM, AND ENFORCE THEM.

>> ALL THIS LEADS TO SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WELL.

TINA FORDHAM, WILL BE WATCHING FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS WEDNESDAY.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING THE SHOW.

>>> AS WE JUST HEARD, TRUMP IS WAGING A GLOBAL TRADE WAR AGAINST ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES ALIKE BY WEAPONIZING TARIFFS.

BUT ARE THEY EFFECTIVE TOOLS TO GET THE U.S. WHAT IT WANTS?

OUR NEXT GUEST, EDWARD FISHMAN, BELIEVES OVERUSING AMERICA'S LEVERAGE COMES WITH GREAT RISKS, BOTH TO THE NATION'S ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL WORLD ORDER.

HE JOINS MICHELLE MARTIN TO DISCUSS.

>> THANK YOU, BIANNA.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE WITH US, MR. FISHMAN.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME, MICHELLE.

>> IN YOUR BOOK, "CHOKEPOINTS," THE U.S.

GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS BECOME A BATTLEFIELD.

I WANT TO PUT SKILL, YOU ARE A FORMER STATE OFFICIAL THAT DESIGNED U.S. POLICY.

HE WROTE, IN TODAY'S GEOPOLITICAL BATTLES, BUSINESS EXECUTIVES HAVE BECOME THE FRONTLINE TROOPS.

THEY ARE THE ONES IMPLEMENTING ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAMPAIGNS, NOT SOLDIERS, NOT SPIES AND NOT DIPLOMATS.

HOW DOES THAT CHANGE THE WAY THE U.S. HAS OPERATED ON THE WORLD STAGE?

WHERE DO WE SEE THIS SHOW UP?

>> WE SEE IT EVERYWHERE.

WE ARE LIVING IN AN AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE TODAY, MICHELLE, IN WHICH SANCTIONS, TARIFFS AND MARKET CONTROLS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY WAY BIG COUNTRIES COMPETE WITH ANOTHER.

CERTAINLY, IT IS TRUE OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT IT IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING TRUE OF OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL.

CHINA, THE EUROPEAN UNION, RUSSIA, THEY'RE ALSO DEVELOPING THESE TOOLS.

I THINK A GOOD WAY TO EXPLAIN SORT OF WHAT HAS CHANGED, YOU KNOW, IN THE LAST TWO DECADES, WE HAVE REALLY ENTERED THIS AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE, IF YOU GO BACK TO THE 1990s, WHEN THE UNITED NATIONS OPPOSED -- IMPOSED AN EMBARGO ON SADDAM HUSSEIN'S IRAQ --SOME PEOPLE MAY REMEMBER AFTER THE GULF WAR IN 1990 AND 1991 --IN ORDER TO STOP IRAQ FROM SELLING OIL ON GLOBAL MARKETS, THE UNITED STATES AND 20 OTHER COUNTRIES HAD TO PATROL THE PERSIAN GULF 24/70 IT AND INSPECT CARGOES GOING IN AND OUT OF IRAQ'S REPORTS AROUND-THE-CLOCK.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED, MICHELLE, IN THE WAKE OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION IN THE '90s, WHEN YOU BRING RUSSIA, CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES INTO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND SUPPLY CHAINS, NOW A SYSTEM TODAY WHERE DONALD TRUMP CAN SIGN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER IN THE OVAL OFFICE AND IMPOSE DRAMATIC ECONOMIC PAIN ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN.

THE BIG REVOLUTION WE HAVE SEEN IS THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR THE USE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE HAS GONE WAY DOWN.

WE NO LONGER NEEDED TO DEPLOY THE MILITARY TO MAKE SANCTIONS WORK, AND THE IMPACT HAS GONE WAY UP.

SO, I THINK THAT IS WHY, TODAY, WE ARE LIVING IN SUCH A NEW AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE.

>> YOU ARGUE THAT THE U.S. HAS COME TO DOMINATE THIS INVISIBLE INFRASTRUCTURE OF GLOBAL FINANCE AND TRADE.

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

AGAIN, I THINK THAT IS ANOTHER THING A LOT OF AMERICANS MIGHT BE SURPRISED BY AND ALSO FRUSTRATED BY, BECAUSE I THINK THEY LOOK AT A SITUATION LIKE RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND WONDER, WHY HASN'T THE U.S. BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE IN, YOU KNOW, ENDING THIS CONFLICT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE USE OF SORT OF ECONOMIC MEANS?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

>> YES.

SO, THE REASON MY BOOK IS CALLED "CHOKE FOUR," IN THE WAKE OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION AND THE '90s, WHEN YOU REALLY DO SEE EVEN COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AND RUSSIA ENTER A DOLLAR-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHEN THEIR TRADE IS EVEN BEING DENOMINATED IN DOLLARS, WHEN YOU'RE NOT TRANSACTING WITH THE UNITED STATES, WHAT HAPPENED IS THERE ARE THESE CHOKEPOINTS THAT DEVELOP, WHERE ONE COUNTRY AS A DOMINANT POSITION AND THERE ARE VERY FEW, IF ANY SUBSTITUTES, AND THE DOLLAR IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THIS, BECAUSE THERE IS REALLY NOT A DIRECT SUBSTITUTE FOR THE DOLLAR, NO OTHER CURRENCY EVEN PLAYS CLOSE TO THE ROLE THE DOLLAR PLACE.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF TRANSACTIONS IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM ARE USING THE DOLLAR, BUT OTHER CHOKEPOINTS TOO, SEMI CONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINS IS ONE WITH SILICON VALLEY'S DOMINATING.

THAT IS WHY THE U.S. CAN IMPOSE EXPORT CONTROLS ON BIG CHINESE COMPANIES LIKE ONES THAT ARE IMPACTFUL.

IF YOU ARE ASKING WHY, WITH SUCH POWER OVER SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TO POINTS LIKE FINANCIAL SYSTEMS AND SEMI CONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINS, WE HAVEN'T DELIVERED A KNOCKOUT BLOW TO RUSSIA.

I THINK IT IS LESS ABOUT RUSSIA FINDING BILLING WAYS TO ADVANCE SANCTIONS AND MORE ABOUT US BEING UNWILLING TO ACTUALLY BRING TO BEAR THE MOST POTENT WEAPONS WE HAVE.

>> WHY IS THAT?

>> BECAUSE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT RUSSIA, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FOREIGN-EXCHANGE THEY ARE GENERATING THIS COMING THROUGH OIL AND GAS EXPORTS.

THE THE, OIL EXPORTS, NUMBER ONE, AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, REALLY, THROUGHOUT 2022 AND 2023, WAS VERY HESITANT TO DO SANCTIONS THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPEDE RUSSIA FROM SELLING OIL ON GLOBAL MARKETS BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED ABOUT WORSENING INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND SPIKING OIL PRICES THAT MAY CAUSE AMERICANS TO HAVE HIGHER PRICES AT THE PUMP.

BY THE WAY, IT IS POSSIBLE DONALD TRUMP WOULD BE INHIBITED BY THE SAME CONCERN.

WE HAVE SEEN DONALD TRUMP TALK ABOUT WANTING TO BRING OIL PRICES DOWN.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, THAT COULD BE PART OF THE REASON WE HAVEN'T SEEN AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA OR IRAN, FOR THAT MATTER.

>> SINCE YOU HAVE BEEN IN THE ROOM FOR SOME OF THESE DECISIONS THAT WERE MADE, IS THERE SOMETHING YOU CAN TELL US ABOUT HOW THESE DECISIONS WERE MADE THAT WAS EITHER SURPRISING TO YOU, OR THAT A LOT OF AMERICANS WOULD BE SURPRISED TO HEAR?

>> GLAD YOU ASKED THAT.

IT REALLY GETS TO THE REASON WHY I WROTE "CHOKEPOINTS. "

I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE INVOLVED IN SOME OF THESE CONVERSATIONS LEADING UP TO THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IN 2013, 2014, 2015 IN RESPONSE TO RUSSIA'S FIRST INVASION OF UKRAINE IN 2014 WHEN THEY ANNEXED CRIMEA.

WHAT FRUSTRATED ME, MICHELLE, WE WOULD DEBATE WHAT TO DO GETS PUT IN AFTER HE ANNEXED CRIMEA, WE WOULD DISCUSS WHETHER OR NOT TO ARM UKRAINIANS.

EVERYONE AT THE TABLE IN THIS SITUATION HAD AN OPINION.

WASN'T JUST THE HANDGUN, THE CIA HAD AN OPINION, STATE DEPARTMENT HAD AN OPINION.

EVERYONE THOUGHT THEY COULD WEIGH IN.

WHEN ECONOMIC WARFARE CAME UP AND SANCTIONS CAME UP, THE ROOM WOULD GO QUIET.

I THINK THAT IS BECAUSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT SANCTIONS HAVE BECOME THE PRIMARY TOOL AMERICAN USES, TO MANY AMERICANS, INCLUDING PEOPLE IN POWER, THEY FEEL A LITTLE ARCANE.

WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW THEY WORK.

USUALLY, YOU WOULD HAVE ONE OR TWO PEOPLE DOMINATING THE CONVERSATION.

I WORRIED THAT, YOU KNOW, WE WERE LIVING IN AN AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE AND WE WEREN'T REALLY EQUIPPED TO MAKE SOUND DECISIONS.

MY BIGGEST HOPE IN WRITING THIS BOOK, "CHOKEPOINTS," IS TO ELEVATE OUR NATIONAL CONVERSATION IN THE NET ESTATES ABOUT USE OF SANCTIONS AND INTERNATIONALLY.

AGAIN, IT IS NOT JUST UNITED STATES USING THESE TOOLS.

>> ARE TARIFFS A FORM OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS?

>> YEAH.

IT IS INTERESTING.

HISTORICALLY, THEY HAVEN'T BEEN.

HISTORICALLY, WE HAVE USED TARIFFS FOR MORE ECONOMIC REASONS.

RIGHT?

EARLY IN AMERICAN HISTORY, EVEN BACK TO GEORGE WASHINGTON, TARIFFS WERE USED TO RAISE REVENUE FOR THE GOVERNMENT, FOR THE INCOME TAX, MIND YOU, BACK THEN, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WAS TINY, MUCH, MUCH SMALLER THAN TODAY, AND MORE RECENTLY AND MORE POSSIBLY, SANCTIONS CAN BE USED TO PROTECT DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES AGAINST FOREIGN COMPETITION.

A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THE UNITED STATES IMPOSED HUNDRED PERCENT TARIFFS ON CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES, BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED THAT IF CHEAPER, MORE EFFICIENT CHINESE ELECTRIC VEHICLES FLOODED THE AMERICAN MARKET, IT WOULD HURT COMPANIES LIKE TESLA, PRODUCING ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR THE UNITED STATES.

WHAT TRUMP HAS DONE IS HE HAS BEEN USING TARIFFS AND CLAIMING TO USE TARIFFS TO RAISE REVENUE AND PROTECT DOMESTIC JUST RATES BUT LOOK BEYOND THAT TO SAY THAT TARIFFS ARE ANOTHER FORM OF SANCTION, AND WE CAN USE TARIFFS TO FORCE THE MEXICANS TO PUT MORE TROOPS ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER, OR COMPELLED CANADA TO BECOME THE 51st STATE, OR EVEN, YOU KNOW, TO PRESSURE COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD TO STOP BUYING VENEZUELAN OIL, SOMETHING HE HAS DONE IN RECENT DAYS.

WHEN HE HAS CALLED SECONDARY TARIFFS.

I THINK, UNDER TRUMP, WE HAVE SEEN IN MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE USE OF TARIFFS THAT LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE ECONOMIC WARFARE AND LESS LIKE A TOOL OF STANDARD ECONOMIC POLICY.

>> THAT IS FASCINATING, BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT TARIFFS, THIS ONE REASON WHY RONALD REAGAN, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS OPPOSED TO THEM --HE WAS A TRUE CONSERVATIVE WHO BELIEVED --AT LEAST A TRUE ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVE --WHO BELIEVED IT WASN'T THE GOVERNMENT'S PLACE TO BE PICKING WINNERS AND LOSERS.

PRESIDENT TRUMP USING TARIFFS TO FAVOR AND DISFAVOR CERTAIN AMERICAN INDUSTRIES, OR IS HE USING THEM TO ADVANCE KIND OF GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS APART FROM THE WINNERS AND LOSERS ON THE AMERICAN SIDE?

>> SURE.

WE HAVE SEEN TRUMP TALK ABOUT TARIFFS AS BASICALLY A MAGIC BULLET TO CURE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

RAISING REVENUE, PROTECTING THE STEEL INDUSTRY OR THE CAR INDUSTRY, AND IT IS, YOU KNOW, PRESSURING OTHER GOVERNMENTS TO BASICALLY BEND TO HIS WILL.

HE IS TRYING TO USE IT AT THIS CURE-OFFER ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

I DON'T THINK THAT IS A WISE USE OF TARIFFS, PERSONALLY.

WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT RONALD REAGAN I THINK IS A GREAT POINT.

SOMETHING PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE --SURPRISING, BECAUSE IT IS VERY BASIC -- TARIFFS ARE A TAX ON IMPORTS.

WHO PAYS THE TARIFF?

IT IS A UNITED STATES COMPANY THAT IS IMPORTING A GOOD THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS, YOU KNOW, I MAKE MY DAUGHTER PANCAKES EVERY SATURDAY MORNING.

CANADA IS A BIG EXPORTER OF MAPLE SYRUP.

IF WE HAVE A 25% TARIFF ON CANADA, I CAN STILL BUY MY DAUGHTER'S MAPLE SYRUP.

I JUST HAVE TO PAY 25% MORE THAN I WOULD OTHERWISE.

RIGHT?

IT IS NOT THE MOST EFFICIENT USE OF ECONOMIC POLICY, IT IS GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY, IT IS WHY CONSERVATIVES LIKE RONALD REAGAN HAVEN'T LIKED TARIFFS.

I MAKE IT IS INTERESTING, MICHELLE, IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT TARIFFS AS A FORM OF ECONOMIC WARFARE, THEY ARE ACTUALLY VERY WEAK TOOL.

TO GO BACK TO THE MAPLE SYRUP EXAMPLE, LET'S SAY, TRUMP REMOVED THE SANCTIONS ON THE COMEDIAN --CANADIAN MAPLE SYRUP COMPANY.

I WOULD NOT BUY THE MAPLE SYRUP, IT WOULD BE ILLEGAL TO BUY ANY MAPLE SYRUP.

MORE TO THE POINT, BECAUSE THE CANADIAN MAPLE SYRUP COMPANY WOULD NO LONGER HAVE ACCESS TO THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM, IT MAY WELL GO BANKRUPT THE NEXT DAY.

SANCTIONS ARE MUCH, MUCH MORE POWERFUL GEOPOLITICAL TOOL THAN SANCTIONS --TARIFFS -- TRUMP CALLS HIMSELF A TARIFF MAN -- BUT I THINK YOU WILL BE DISAPPOINTED WHEN HE TRIES TO USE TARIFFS TO CURE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

>> DO YOU UNDERSTAND ANY SENSE OF WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SO ENAMORED WITH TARIFFS AS A PART OF THIS KIND OF GLOBAL OR GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY?

>> SURE YOU KNOW, THERE ARE VERY FEW THINGS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS INSISTENT ON.

BUT TARIFFS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THEM.

IF YOU GO BACK EVEN TO THE '80s WHEN HE WAS FAR FROM POLITICS, HE WAS ADVOCATING FOR TARIFFS AND SAYING THAT, YOU KNOW, WE WERE LOSING TO JAPAN BECAUSE WE WERE RUNNING A GIANT TRADE DEFICIT WITH JAPAN.

WE WERE IMPORTING MUCH MORE FROM JAPAN THAN JAPAN WAS IMPORTING FROM US.

SO, WE SHOULD TAX THOSE IMPORTS.

TRUMP ACTUALLY, I THINK THERE WAS AN IMPORTANT, AND HE MAKES IN HIS FIRST TERM.

IN SOME WAYS, IT HELPS US UNDERSTAND HIS MENTALITY, WHERE HE SAYS, BECAUSE WE ARE RUNNING SUCH BIG DEFICITS, TRADE WARS ARE GOOD AND EASY TO WIN.

THE PROBLEM IS, THAT IS A MENTALITY GOING BACK TO THE '80s, BEFORE THE AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE I DESCRIBED IN MY BOOK.

WHAT WE HAVE NOW IS WE HAVE MULTI-DOMAIN ECONOMIC WAR HAPPENING, TOOLS THAT ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN TARIFFS LIKE SANCTIONS AND EXPORT CONTROLS.

WHAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT NOW, MICHELLE, IF YOU LOOK AT HOW CHINA HAS RETALIATED AGAINST THE EARLY TARIFFS OF THIS SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, IT HASN'T JUST BEEN WITH THEIR OWN TARIFFS, THEY HAVE RETALIATED WITH SANCTIONS, IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON THE AMERICAN APPAREL COMPANY ON THE AMERICAN DNA SEQUENCER, ON THE BIGGEST DRONE COMPANY IN SILICON VALLEY THAT HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR THESE AMERICAN COMPANIES, IMPOSED EXPORT CONTROLS ON CRITICAL MINERALS TO THE U.S. WE RELY ON, EVERYTHING FROM AMMUNITION TO BATTERIES.

RIGHT?

THEN, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE LOST ANTIMONOPOLY INVESTIGATIONS INTO BIG TECH COMPANIES LIKE GOOGLE AND NVIDIA.

THE RISK TODAY ISN'T SO MUCH A TRADE WAR.

I ACTUALLY THINK THAT IS A MISNOMER.

IT IS REALLY THE MULTI-DOMAIN ECONOMIC WAR.

I THINK THAT IS THE REASON WHY I FEAR THAT TRUMP IS PLAYING WITH FIRE WITH THESE TARIFFS.

>> WHEN IS THIS CAR GOING TO CRASH?

WHEN ARE AMERICAN CONSUMERS LIKELY TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS?

ARE THEY ALREADY?

>> I THINK ONE OF THE IRONIES IS SO FAR --I THINK THINGS COULD CHANGE VERY SOON --TRUMP HAS BEEN THREATENING TARIFFS AND THEN RETRACTING THEM, PUTTING THEM IN PLACE AND PULLING BACK.

THE IRONY IS THAT, WHAT I THINK WE WILL SEE IN THE DATA, IS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT HAS SPIKED BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE PANIC BUYING, BASICALLY HOARDING, BUYING MORE THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE.

IF TRUMP KEEPS KIND OF THIS, YOU KNOW, HALF-IN, HALF-OUT APPROACH, I THINK YOU WILL KEEP SEEING MORE HOARDING, AND YOU ARE NOT GOING TO ACTUALLY SEE THE CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR THAT TRUMP WANTS.

LET'S SAY, TRUMP DOES, YOU KNOW, PUT THESE TARIFFS IN PLACE, YOU KNOW, THIS MONTH, IN APRIL, AND THEY STAY IN PLACE, BECAUSE HE REALLY WANTS TO BE SURE ALL THE COMPONENTS OF THE AUTO INDUSTRY.

AMERICANS ARE GOING TO FEEL THAT REALLY!

IT IS NOT LIKE THE AUTO INDUSTRY HAS HUGE NUMBERS OF CARS AND INVENTORY THAT ARE ALREADY BUILT.

RIGHT?

PRETTY SOON, WITHIN A FEW WEEKS OF THE TARIFFS GOING INTO EFFECT, YOU WILL SEE CAR PRICES GOING UP.

NOW WOULD PROBABLY BE THE TIME TO BUILD A CAR.

IN TERMS OF WHEN THINGS COULD GO OFF THE RAILS, THE THING I'M WORRIED ABOUT IS, FOR SURE, THE IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

AND WE ALSO NEED TO ZOOM OUT A SECOND AND THINK ABOUT WHAT KIND OF A WORLD DOES THIS USHER IN.

IF THERE IS A WORLD WHERE WE ARE IMPOSING SANCTIONS AND TARIFFS NOT JUST AGAINST THE CHINAS AND RUSSIAS OF THE WORLD, AGAINST OUR ADVERSARIES, BUT AGAINST CANADA, MEXICO, EUROPEAN UNION, BASICALLY EVERYONE, WE KIND OF WINDUP BACKING INTO AUTARKY, THIS NOTION WHERE EVERYTHING JUST HAVE TO BE MADE IN THE U.S., AND THAT VISION IS ONE THAT, HISTORICALLY, HAS INSPIRED THINGS LIKE IMPERIALISM AND CONQUEST.

IF YOU DON'T FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT YOU CAN BUY RESOURCES FROM A PLACE LIKE GREENLAND, THE MENTALITY IS, MAYBE WE CAN CONQUER AND PLANT A FLAG THERE TO HAVE SECURE ACCESS TO RESOURCES.

SO, I WORRY NOT JUST SO MUCH FOR THE NEAR TERM INFLATION, YOU KNOW, OR HOW IT IS AFFECTING OUR POCKETBOOKS, I WORRY ABOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS, WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE GLOBAL ORDER AND THE RISK OF WARFARE, NOT JUST ECONOMIC WARFARE.

>> SPEAKING OF WARFARE, LET'S TALK ABOUT RUSSIA.

WE STARTED OUR CONVERSATION TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IN AN EFFORT TO CURB THEIR AGGRESSION INTO UKRAINE.

WHAT ABOUT NOW?

IS THERE ADDITIONAL CAPACITY THERE THAT COULD BRING -- >> TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO BRING THEM TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE TO BRING THIS CONFLICT TO AN END?

THE PRESIDENT SAYS, HE WANTS THIS CONFLICT TO END.

ARE THERE TOOLS HE IS NOT USING?

>> FOR SURE.

I THINK MAYBE ONE THING, JUST A LEVEL SET ON, AND THEN I WILL ANSWER YOUR QUESTION DIRECTLY, IS THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THESE RUSSIA SANCTIONS.

PEOPLE THINK THAT THEY HAVEN'T WORKED.

I WILL REMIND FOLKS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE BIG RUSSIA SANCTIONS WENT INTO EFFECT ABOUT THREE YEARS AGO, RIGHT AFTER THE INVASION IN FEBRUARY OF 2022.

BY NOW, THREE YEARS LATER, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS POISED FOR ZERO GROWTH IN 2025.

SIGNIFICANT INFLATION WITH THE INTEREST RATE WELL OVER 20%.

MORTGAGES IN RUSSIA, BELOW 30%.

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS NOT DOING VERY WELL.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, 3 YEARS IS ACTUALLY NOT THAT LONG.

THE IRAN SANCTIONS CAMPAIGN THAT LED TO THE NUCLEAR DEAL STARTED IN EARNEST IN 2006.

DIDN'T GET THE FIRST NUCLEAR DEAL UNTIL 2013, 7 YEARS.

THESE CAMPAIGNS TAKE A WHILE.

I THINK PART OF THE REASON, MICHELLE, YOU ARE SEEING POTENT SO DESPERATE RIGHT NOW FOR A BILATERAL DEAL WITH TRUMP TO TRY TO PERSUADE TRUMP THAT WE NEED TO NORMALIZE U.S. -RUSSIAN RELATIONS AS HE REALIZES HIS ECONOMY CAN'T GO ON THE WAY IT IS FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS.

HE NEEDS A LIFEBOAT TO BE SENT TO HIM BY THE UNITED STATES.

SAY, TRUMP REALIZES THIS AND SAYS, I REALLY WANT TO END THE WAR WITH UKRAINE.

HE COULD RAMP UP USHER AND ACCELERATE THAT TIMELINE.

YOU COULD SAY, YOU KNOW, WE ARE GOING TO IMPROVE --AND POSE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS.

IF WE WERE TO DO THAT INSTEAD OF FACING A CRISIS IN ONE OR TWO YEARS, PUTIN MAY FACE A CRISIS IN THREE OR SIX MONTHS IN WHICH CASE HE WOULD HAVE A BIG INCENTIVE TO MAKE A PEACE DEAL TODAY.

IT MAY NOT MEET HIS MAXIMALIST OBJECTIVES.

>> BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, YOU STARTED BY SAYING, I KNOW YOU ARE CONCERNED THAT THIS SORT OF ECONOMIC WARFARE CAN LEAD TO OTHER FORMS OF WARFARE.

ALL OF THIS DEBATE AND DISCUSSION AROUND TARIFFS IS DEEPLY UNSETTLING TO THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, TO THE MARKETS, AND INEVITABLY, TO CONSUMERS, BUT DO YOU THINK, IN A WAY, THIS HAS ELEVATED OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THIS TO THE POINT WHERE, PERHAPS, PEOPLE ARE TAKING IT MORE SERIOUSLY AND EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT MORE?

>> I DO THINK SO.

I WILL SAY, IN THE UNITED STATES AT THE END OF FEBRUARY -- THE BOOK HAS BEEN OUT OVER A MONTH NOW -- IT HAS DONE INCREDIBLY WELL.

IT HAS BEEN A "NEW YORK TIMES" BESTSELLER, WHICH I DON'T THINK MANY PEOPLE WOULD HAVE ASSUMED WAS POSSIBLE FOR A BOOK ON SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC WARFARE AND TARIFFS.

I FOUND AUDIENCES ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY, SOON, IN OTHER COUNTRIES, VERY RECEPTIVE TO THIS.

I AM HOPEFUL THAT, YOU KNOW, MY BOOK CAN PLAY A SMALL ROLE IN ELEVATING THAT NATIONAL CONVERSATION, THAT PEOPLE ARE EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT THIS TOPIC, AND OBVIOUSLY, I WOULD NOT WANT THE CIRCUMSTANCES TO BE ONES IN WHICH PEOPLE ARE EDUCATING THEMSELVES ABOUT IT, BUT I THINK THERE IS AN IMPORTANT POINT HERE, WHICH IS THE AGE OF ECONOMIC WARFARE PREDATES TRUMP.

THIS IS A SECULAR TREND THAT STARTED DURING GEORGE W. BUSH'S PRESIDENCY, ACCELERATED DURING OBAMA, TRUMP, BIDEN NOW TRUMP AGAIN.

IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO ADD, LAST, THIS CURRENT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AS WELL.

IF THIS IS SORT OF THE PUSH THAT WE ALL NEED TO LEARN ABOUT THESE TOOLS TO TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY, TO KEEP AMERICA AND OUR COUNTRIES AND FAMILIES SAFE IN THIS, WARFARE, MAYBE THAT IS THE SILVER LINING OF ALL OF THE CHAOS WE ARE SEEING TODAY.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH US, AND FOR SHARING THESE EXPERTISE.

>> THANK YOU, MICHELLE, I REALLY ENJOYED THE CONVERSATION.

>>> FINALLY, TO ALL WHO CELEBRATE, MARKING THE END OF RAMADAN, IN INDIA, WORSHIPERS GATHERED FOR PRAYER IN FRONT OF THE ICONIC MOSQUE WHERE, FOR MANY, IT IS A TIME FOR FAMILY GATHERINGS AND SPIRITUAL REFLECTION.

HOWEVER, IN GAZA, DISPLACED PALESTINIANS, ONCE AGAIN, OBSERVED DEED UNDER THE ISRAELI BOMBARDMENT.

AMIDST THE WAR, FAMILIES ARE TRYING THEIR BEST TO FIND THE MODES OF JOY BY PROVIDING THESE SWINGS FOR CHILDREN TO PLAY.

AN IMAGE TO LEAVE YOU ON THERE.

>>> THAT IS IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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