> >> AS WE BEEN HEARING, AMERICANS SHIFTING OBJECTIONS FOR THE WAR IN IRAN ARE GIVING THE WORLD WHIPLASH BUT WHAT IS BEHIND THE UNCERTAINTY?

NEW YORK TIMES DIPLOMATIC CORRESPONDENT, EDWARD WONG SAID IT'S ALL PART OF THE PRESIDENTS DESTROY AND DEAL DOCTORATE, AND HE IS JOINING WALTER ISAACSON TO EXPLAIN AND ALSO ABOUT CHINA'S INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE, EDWARD WONG, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> WALTER, IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE.

>> LET ME ASK YOU A BROAD QUESTION ABOUT THE YEAR AND A HALF OR SO THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

YOU HAD GREENLAND, YOU HAD HIM MAKING THAT BIG OBSESSION, AND THEN KIND OF BACKING OFF, LIKEWISE, PRESIDENT MADURO IN VENEZUELA, HE GOES IN, HAS A REGIME CHANGE, DOESN'T EMBRACE THE OPPOSITION, NOW WE'VE SEEN THIS IN IRAN, WHERE HE'S GOING BACK AND FORTH.

IS THERE SOME METHOD IN THIS MADNESS THAT MAYBE IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL AND HE'S VERY TRANSACTIONAL?

IS THERE A TRUMP DOCTRINE OR IS IT JUST IMPROVISATION?

>> I WOULD SAY IT'S MOSTLY IMPROVISATION.

EVAN --I REMEMBER SPEAKING TO A VERY SENIOR OFFICIAL WHO WORKED IN THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

AND THIS NOW FORMER OFFICIALS SAID YOU JOURNALISTS, REPORTERS AND ANALYSTS, YOU LIKE TO DRAW A PICTURE THAT CONNECTS ALL OF THESE DOTS AND TRUMP'S POLICY TO SAY HERE'S THE STRATEGY THAT HE'S PURSUING BUT IN FACT, FROM HERE INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS JUST DAY- TO-DAY DECISIONS, RAMBLINGS, YOU KNOW, OFFKILTER REMARKS, AND LOTS OF WAFFLING, DEPENDING ON THE PRESIDENTS IMPULSE OF THE DAY.

SO HE SAID THAT'S WHAT WE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND WHEN WE ARE ASSESSING TRUMP'S REMARKS AND I HAVE KEPT THAT, HIS ADVICE IN MY HEAD EVER SINCE THEN.

I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR ALL OF US TO REMEMBER.

I DO THINK THOUGH, WHEN WE LOOK AT TRUMP'S FOREIGN-POLICY, THERE ARE SOME BROAD THINGS THAT WE CAN SAY OUR CONSISTENT AND THUS PAINT A PICTURE OF HOW TRUMP THINKS ABOUT THE WORLD AND ABOUT AMERICA'S ROLE IN THE WORLD.

ONE, I DO THINK TRUMP THINKS, YOU KNOW, WHETHER HE EXPLICITLY THINKS IN THESE TERMS IN HIS HEAD OR NOT BUT THE IDEA OF EMPIRE IS A GOOD ONE.

THAT AMERICA AND OTHER WESTERN NATIONS WERE IN THEIR GREATEST GLORY WHEN THEY EXERCISED COERCIVE CONTROL OVER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, AND TRUMP WOULD LIKE TO DO THIS AGAIN.

I THINK THAT'S BEEN BORNE OUT VERY CLEARLY BY HIS POLICIES.

AND THAT INCLUDES ACQUIRING TERRITORY.

THE OTHER THING I THINK THAT WE ARE SEEING, THAT IS IN TERMS OF THIS EXERCISE OF AMERICAN POWER AND MILITARY POWER OVERSEAS, HE IS VERY HAPPY TO BOMB COUNTRIES TO SEND FORCES INTO REGIONS, IN THE CASE OF VENEZUELA, TO SEND U. S. GROUND TROOPS INTO SEES THE LEADER OF A COUNTRY, BUT HE ALSO SHIES AWAY FROM THIS IDEA OF NATIONBUILDING.

SO, WHAT I SEE IS HIM SEEKING REGIME COMPLIANCE RATHER THAN REGIME CHANGE AROUND THE WORLD.

I CALL IT A DOCTRINE OF DESTROY AND DEAL.

HE'S WILLING TO DESTROY PARTS OF COUNTRIES IN ORDER TO GET THEM TO SUBMIT AND THEN HE'S WILLING TO MAKE DEALS WITH A LEVEL OF LEADERSHIP THAT HE THINKS WILL COMPLY WITH HIM, OR THAT WILL ABATE HIM, ONCE HE'S GOTTEN RID OF THE LEADERSHIP ABOVE THEM.

I THINK THAT IS A VERY CONSISTENT ACTION THAT WE ARE SEEING IN IRAN, EVEN THOUGH HE TALKS ABOUT REGIME CHANGE, IN REALITY, THERE HAS BEEN NO REGIME CHANGE AND IN FACT, HE IS SEEKING SOMEONE IN THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP THAT HE CAN DO A DEAL WITH.

>> DO YOU THINK SOME OF THE PEOPLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION ACTUALLY BY THE FACT THAT WE HAD A REGIME CHANGE BECAUSE IT'S CERTAINLY A MORE HARDLINE REGIME LED BY AN AYATOLLAH?

>> PETE HEGSETH SAID UNEQUIVOCALLY THAT THE REGIME HAS CHANGED IN IRAQ.

HEGSETH HAS USUALLY STUCK TO TRUMP'S TALKING POINTS.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO, WHO'S ALSO THE WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR AND HE'S BEEN VERY SKEPTICAL OF WHETHER THERE HAS BEEN REAL CHANGE.

I THINK THAT COMES ACROSS IN HIS PUBLIC COMMENTS.

HE SAID IN RECENT INTERVIEWS THAT THE PROBLEM WITH IRAN IS WHAT HE CALLS THE RADICAL SHIA, HE USES THE PRESENT TENSE, THE ONE THAT IS NOW IN POWER AFTER THE KILLING OF THE SUPREME LEADER AND HIS TOP AIDES, AND, RUBIO HAS MADE THE ASSERTION THAT THE U. S. HAS TO COMPLETELY DEGRADE IRAN'S CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS CAPABILITIES BECAUSE THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP CAN'T BE TRUSTED AND IT'S ESSENTIALLY AN ADVERSARY.

SO THE U. S. HAS TO TAKE THOSE MEASURES.

SO, IT'S CLEAR, I THINK, RUBIO IS MUCH MORE SKEPTICAL THAN TRUMP OR HEGSETH THAT THERE HAS BEEN REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.

>> THAT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME LIGHT BETWEEN RUBIO AND HIS CLEAR OBJECTIVES FOR THE WAR AND PRESIDENT TRUMP'S OBJECTIVES OF THE WAR, IS THERE DAYLIGHT BETWEEN THEM?

>> I'M NOT SURE THERE'S DAYLIGHT, AS MUCH AS RUBIO, HE WANTS TO PRESENT PUBLICLY A LIST OF WAR AIMS THAT TRUMP CAN CREDIBLY SAY THE U. S. HAS ACHIEVED SO THEY CAN DECLARE VICTORY AND PULL U. S. OUT OF COMBAT OPERATIONS IN THE COUNTRY HE CHOSE TO DO SO.

I THINK RUBIO IS PLAYING A CERTAIN ROLE HERE AND RUBIO, JUST THIS WEEK, LISTED FOUR VERY CONCRETE WAR AIMS, CENTERED AROUND IRAN'S CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS CAPABILITIES INCLUDING DESTROYING THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE, THEIR NAVY, WHAT HE CALLS SEVERELY DIMINISHING THEIR CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH MISSILES AND ALSO DESTROYING FACTORIES THAT PRODUCE THOSE WEAPONS.

THE U. S. CAN CREDIBLY CLAIM THAT IT ALONG WITH ISRAEL HAS ACCOMPLISHED MOST OF THOSE GOALS, SO TRUMP COULD ESSENTIALLY HANG UP A MISSION ACCOMPLISHED BANNER IF HE CHOSE TO DO SO BUT TRUMP HIMSELF HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP, HE HAS SAID THINGS FROM WE WANT TO ERADICATE THERE, YOU KNOW, THEIR NUCLEAR STOCKPILES, WHICH COULD INVOLVE SENDING IN GROUND TROOPS TO SEIZE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, HE ALSO SAID WE WANT TO DO A REGIME CHANGE AND WE'VE DONE A REGIME CHANGE.

THAT'S PROBABLY THE MOST AMBITIOUS GOAL AND AS I'VE SAID, NOT MANY PEOPLE WHO LOOK AT IRAN TODAY, THINK THAT THERE HAS BEEN REGIME CHANGE.

>> IN THE PAST WEEK OR TWO TRUMP SAID WE ARE HAVING TALKS, NOT HAVING TALKS, AND PAKISTAN WAS INVOLVED IN SOME OF THOSE TALKS, TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THERE SOME TRUTH TO THAT?

>> THERE IS A PASSING OF MESSAGES BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.

IT'S MOSTLY BEING DONE VIA INTERMEDIARIES AND PAKISTAN IS ONE OF THEM.

PAKISTAN HAS A HIGH RANKING OFFICIAL WHO IS IN TOUCH WITH MILITARY OFFICIALS IN IRAN AND RIGHT NOW, WE THINK THAT MILITARY OFFICIALS IN IRAN HOLD MUCH OF THE POWER IN IRAN EVEN THOUGH THE SON OF THE FORMER SUPREME LEADER IS CURRENTLY NAMED AS THE TOP LEADER IN IRAN.

AND SO, THAT'S A CHANNEL THAT IS OPEN.

THE U. S. IS RELAYING MESSAGES VIA PAKISTAN AND IRAN IS DOING THE SAME, AND WE'VE RECENTLY SEEN PAKISTAN GO TO CHINA AND ASK FOR CHINA TO HELP ACT AS A MEDIATOR IN THIS AND CHINA AND PAKISTAN HAVE PUT OUT FIVE- POINT JOINT STATEMENTS, AND THEY SAY THERE NEEDS TO BE AN END TO THE HOSTILITIES IN THE REGION.

>> SO CHINA'S INVOLVEMENT IS VERY INTERESTING HERE.

HAS THIS WHOLE THING MADE CHINA MORE OF A PLAYER ON THE STAGE AND WHAT WILL THIS MEAN IF AND WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SCHEDULED TO GO TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT SHE IN A MONTH OR SO?

>> CHINA AS WE KNOW IS A COUNTRY THAT IS SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO IRAN.

I WOULDN'T SAY THERE IDEOLOGICALLY ALIGNED, IT'S THE BIGGEST PURCHASER OF OIL, THEY SHARE COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY TIES.

AND IT'S ALSO PAKISTAN'S CLOSEST ALLY.

SO THERE IS A CONFLUENCE OF INTEREST HERE.

AND, CHINA, STEPPING TO DIPLOMACY IS AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT.

I THINK CHINA HAS MADE SOME EFFORT TO GET INVOLVED IN MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY.

IT OFTEN TRIES TO STAY AWAY FROM CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST OR OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD BECAUSE IT FEELS THAT MIGHT WORK AGAIN IT'S -- AGAINST ITS INTEREST IT SAYS IT DOESN'T WANT ANY PART OF THAT TYPE OF SCENARIO.

BUT, WHEN IT FEELS THAT THERE IS AN END GOAL THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED WITH CHINA'S HELP, IT DOES STEP IN.

A FEW YEARS AGO, DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, WE SAW THAT CHINA CAME IN TO HELP IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA FINALIZE AN OPENING AFTER THE TWO COUNTRIES HAD BEEN NEGOTIATING FOR SEVERAL YEARS ON THE WHOLE THING.

SO, CHINA DOES TAKE AN INTEREST WHEN IT FEELS IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH SOMETHING.

AND SO, I THINK IT'S INTERESTING THAT CHINA IS NOW PARTNERING WITH PAKISTAN TO TRY AND PUSH FOR NEGOTIATIONS TOWARDS A CEASE-FIRE AND ALSO, IN THEIR FIVE-POINT STATEMENT, THEY'RE PUSHING FOR AN OPENING OF SHIPPING ACROSS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHICH WE KNOW IS PROBABLY THE THORNIEST ISSUE RIGHT NOW IN THE CONFLICT.

THE FACT THAT THE IRANIAN MILITARY, IN ORDER TO EXERT LEVERAGE HAS ESSENTIALLY CLOSED OFF THE STREET BY THREATENING SHIPS WITH THE TAX, IRAN DOES ALLOW CERTAIN SHIPS TO GO ACROSS, IF THEY ARE PAKISTANI FLAGS.

FOR INSTANCE, OR IF THEY ARE BOUND FOR CHINA.

SO CHINA HAS BEEN GETTING ENERGY SUPPLIES FROM IRAN AND AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLOSER TO MOST SHIPS HAS REALLY SENT ENERGY MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD INTO TURMOIL.

I'M SURE ALL YOUR VIEWERS WHO GO GET GASOLINE FOR THEIR CARS, THEY HAVE NOTICED THIS.

I THINK CHINA AND PAKISTAN BOTH HAVE A VESTED INTEREST IN TRYING TO GET THE HOSTILITIES TO END AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

>> THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS THAT THE IRANIANS ARE ALLOWING SHIPS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BOTH WITH PAKISTANI FLAGS BUT ALSO, PAYING IN CHINESE CURRENCY SOMETIMES.

DO YOU THINK THIS WHOLE THING WILL INCREASE THE INFLUENCE THAT CHINA HAS OVER?

>> I THINK CHINA HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET VARIOUS COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WELL AS OTHER COUNTRIES, TOO, TO PAY FOR GOODS AND SERVICES IN IRAN BECAUSE THEY'RE TRYING TO MAKE THEIR CURRENCY INTO A RESERVE CURRENCY FOR THE WORLD LIKE THE U. S. DOLLAR.

ALONG WITH ITS MILITARY POWER, THE FACT THAT THE DOLLARS ARE RESERVED CURRENCY, IT UNDERPINS POWER AROUND THE WORLD -- >> COULD THAT BE A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY?

SO THE PETRODOLLAR IS NO LONGER THE MAIN USE OF CURRENCY?

>> IF CHINA ACHIEVES THAT, IT WILL BE A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY, YOU KNOW, BUT THEY ARE A LONG WAYS FROM THAT.

THEY HAVE BEEN IN TALKS WITH SAUDI ARABIA TO GET SAUDI ARABIA TO PAY, TO TAKE PAYMENT AND THEY'VE HAD SOME SUCCESS BUT AT THE SOME --SAME TIME, THEY HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND IF IRAN HAS A CHANCE TO DO THAT.

I THINK THAT'S A QUESTION THAT IS UP IN THE AIR.

I THINK IT'S INTERESTING THAT WE ARE HEARING ABOUT THIS AND IT DOES SHOW THAT CHINA HAS CERTAIN STRATEGIC AMBITIONS AND THIS WORK COULD BOLSTER THOSE STRATEGIC AMBITIONS ON THE PART OF CHINA.

I THINK THE MAIN WAY THAT CHINA BENEFITS FROM THE WAR IS THAT IT DIVERTS U. S. ATTENTION AWAY FROM CHINA'S OWN MILITARY BUILDUP IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION.

WE KNOW THAT CERTAIN OFFICIALS IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, VERY HIGH RANKING OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YEARS THAT THE U. S. HAS TO BUILD UP MILITARY ARMS AND PRESENCE IN THE ASIAN PACIFIC IN ORDER TO DETER THE CHINESE NOTION OF AN INVASION OF TAIWAN OR AGGRESSION AGAINST OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE AREA.

AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW IS THE U. S. DIVERTING HUGE AMOUNTS OF MILITARY RESOURCES AWAY FROM THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION TO THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH IS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT TRUMP AND OTHER PRESIDENTS HAVE BEEN SAYING THEY WANTED TO DO FOR ABOUT A DECADE NOW.

>> WHAT IS ALL OF THIS PORTEND FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SCHEDULED SUMMIT WITH PRESIDENT XI?

>> I THINK WHEN TRUMP GOES TO MEET WITH XI, IN TRUMP'S MIND, HE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE LEVERAGE OVER CHINA.

HE STARTED A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA, AS YOU KNOW, AND IT REALLY CAUSED CHAOS IN GLOBAL MARKETS.

IT WAS TARIFFS, LIKE HE IMPOSES ON OTHER COUNTRIES BUT IT HAD A MUCH BIGGER IMPACT BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT CHINA IS THE WORLD'S SECOND-LARGEST ECONOMY AND AMERICA'S BIGGEST TRADING PARTNER.

AND SO, HE WANTED TO BASICALLY PUMMEL CHINA, TO GET WHAT HE CONSIDERS TO BE BETTER TRADE TERMS BUT CHINA CALLED HIS BLUFF AND SAID, WE WILL LIMIT OR STOP THE EXPORT OF CRITICAL MINERALS TO THE U.S., IF YOU GO AHEAD WITH THIS.

SO TRUMP BACKED DOWN AND HE CALLED A HALT IN THE TRADE WAR.

HE SEES CHINA AS AN ECONOMIC RIVAL.

HE DOESN'T SEE IT AS A STRATEGIC RIVAL.

HE HASN'T TALKED ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY GOAL ADVANCES AND HE DOESN'T TALK ABOUT ITS SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE AND WHETHER THAT IS A CHALLENGE TO U. S. AND POWER OVERSEAS.

HE TALKS IN VERY POSITIVE TERMS ABOUT XI JINPING.

HE SAYS HE IS A VERY GOOD FRIEND, HE'S TALKED IN TERMS OF SHOWING ADMIRATION FOR HOW XI RUNS.

SHE WANTS TO BE SEEN AS AN EQUAL ON TRADE AND THAT'S HIS MAIN GOAL BUT THE IRAN WERE IN THE FACT THAT THE U. S. IS MIRED IN THIS CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS CAUSED CHAOS IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS, THAT GIVES HIM LESS OF A HAND TO PLAY IN TALKS OF CHINA BECAUSE I THINK THAT HE GOES INTO THIS SUMMIT PROBABLY MORE CAUTIOUS THAN HE WOULD OTHERWISE.

IF HE THREATENS TO ESCALATE OR RESTART THE TRADE WAR, I THINK CHINA MIGHT CALL HIS BLUFF ON THAT.

HE KNOWS THAT THE MARKETS DEPEND ON HIS EVERY MOVE AT THIS POINT, WHETHER IT'S IN IRAN OR CHINA AND I THINK HE WANTS TO REASSURE THE MARKETS THAT THERE WON'T BE MORE TURBULENCE GOING AHEAD.

I THINK THAT IN A WAY, CONSTRICTS THE TYPE OF ASSERTIONS THAT HE CAN MAKE IN A SUMMIT WITH XI.

>> AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WAR, TRUMP TALKED ABOUT SIX WEEKS AS BEING SOMETHING, WELL, IT'S BEEN ABOUT SIX WEEKS.

DO YOU THINK THIS WAS ALWAYS PART OF HIS PLAN?

>> TRUMP HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP ON STATING WHEN THE WAR WOULD END AND HOW LONG IT WOULD TAKE.

HE SAID SIX WEEKS, AT ONE POINT HE SAID WE ARE WELL IT -- AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEEKS.

AND THAT WAS MORE THAN TWO OR THREE WEEKS AGO.

SO, PEOPLE WHO OBSERVE TRUMP'S STATEMENTS HAVE SAID HE OFTEN SAYS TWO WEEKS, TWO WEEKS IS A TIMELINE THAT HE OFTEN THROWS OUT.

AND THINGS VERY OFTEN TAKE LONGER THAN THE TWO WEEKS THAT HE CITES.

SO WE SHOULD APPROACH THE TIMELINE THAT HE LAYS OUT WITH SOME SKEPTICISM AND AS WE KNOW, WHEN THE U. S. GOT INVOLVED IN WARS, STARTED OR SUPPORTED WARS IN OTHER PLACES, U. S. OFFICIALS HAD OFTEN SAID WE WILL TURN THE CORNER IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS OR IN A MONTH OR SO, AND OF COURSE, THOSE TURN INTO MANY MONTHS AND THEN MANY YEARS.

AND AMERICAN LEADERS AND AMERICAN POLITICIANS DON'T SEEM TO REALLY HAVE LEARNED A LESSON FROM THOSE PREVIOUS STATEMENTS.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANKS A LOT, WALTER.

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