>>> NOW IN THE U.S., HIGHER EDUCATION IS NO LONGER SEEN AS AN ADVANTAGE.

RATHER, MANY SEE THOSE HUGE TUITION FEES OUTWEIGHING THE BENEFITS.

SINCE 2016, THERE HAS BEEN NEARLY 10% DROP IN STUDENTS HEADING STRAIGHT TO COLLEGE FROM HIGH SCHOOL.

RECENTLY INVESTIGATED THE TREND AND HE JOINS TO DISCUSS HIS FINDINGS.

>> THANKS.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

RECENTLY, YOU HAD AN ARTICLE THAT WAS TITLED, AMERICANS ARE LOSING FAITH IN THE VALUE OF COLLEGE.

WHOSE FAULT IS THAT?

YOU ARE POINTING OUT TO START OFF THE PIECE THAT STUDENTS AND PARENTS ARE TURNING AWAY FROM HIGHER EDUCATION.

WHY DO YOU SAY THAT?

>> EVERYONE IS TURNING AWAY FROM HIGHER EDUCATION.

THE MAIN PLACE THAT THIS FIRST CAME TO MY ATTENTION WAS IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLS.

STARTING IN ABOUT 2015, THERE WAS THIS SHARP DECLINE IN HOW AMERICANS WERE ANSWERING PULLING QUESTIONS ABOUT COLLEGE AND IT DIDN'T MATTER HOW THEY WERE ASKED TO BELIEVE IN THE VALUE OF COLLEGE.

IS COLLEGE A POSITIVE FORCE IN THE COUNTRY?

IS IT WORTH IT?

PEOPLE WERE STARTING TO CHANGE THEIR ANSWERS IN THE NEGATIVE, WHICH HAS CONTINUED UP UNTIL TODAY.

THEY CAME OUT A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECLINE IN WHAT AMERICANS ARE SAYING ABOUT COLLEGE.

GOING DOWN.

COLLEGE GOING AND UNDERGRADUATE POPULATION PEAKED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN A DECADE AGO AND THEY ARE NOW MORE THAN 2 MILLION FEWER COLLEGE STUDENTS ON AMERICAN COLLEGE CANCERS IS CAMPUSES THAN THEY WERE A DECADE AGO.

>> FOR DECADES, THERE HAS BEEN THE NOTION THAT IF YOU GO TO A FOUR-YEAR COLLEGE, YOU WILL LEARN MORE OVER YOUR LIFE THEN SOMEONE WHO JUST HAS A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA.

ISN'T THAT STILL TRUE?

>> WELL, IT IS.

THE MATH HAS GOTTEN MORE COMPLICATED OVER THE YEARS, BUT THAT BASIC CALCULATION IS ABSOLUTELY STILL TRUE.

THE ECONOMISTS HAVE THIS THING CALLED THE COLLEGE WAGE PREMIUM THAT SHOWS HOW MUCH MORE ON AVERAGE A COLLEGE GRADUATE MAKES COMPARED TO A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE.

RIGHT NOW, COLLEGE GRADUATES ARE MAKING ABOUT TWO THIRDS MORE THAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES ON AVERAGE.

IN ITS MOST BASIC TERMS, THE VALUE OF A COLLEGE DEGREE IS STRONG.

>> VALUE VERSUS -- IF YOU COMPARE WAGES TO WEALTH, WHAT HAPPENS?

>> THAT IS WHERE IT GETS COMPLICATED.

TWO THINGS HAVE CHANGED.

YES, THE IDEA OF WEALTH AND ECONOMISTS IN ST. LOUIS WHO I WROTE ABOUT FOUND A NEW WAY TO LOOK AT COLLEGE AND THE VALUE OF A COLLEGE DEGREE.

THEY LOOKED AT LIFETIME WEALTH AND HOW MUCH YOUR ASSETS MINUS YOUR DEBT WOULD BE.

THEY FOUND IN THOSE TERMS, MORE RECENT GRADUATES AND YOUNGER PEOPLE BORN AFTER 1980 -- COLLEGE GRADUATES WERE DOING BETTER THAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES.

WHAT THEY FIGURE IS THAT IT HAS TO DO WITH DEBT.

IT HAS TO DO WITH THE EXPENSE OF COLLEGE, WHICH TAKES A BIG CHUNK OUT OF THE ASSETS OF STUDENT THAT GOES TO COLLEGE, THAN A LOT OF STUDENTS HAVE THAT THAT THEY HAVE TO PAY BACK OVER THEIR LIFETIME, SO ON THE WHOLE, THESE YOUNGER PEOPLE THAT THE EQUATION IS NOT WORKING OUT THE WAY IT USED TO AND THEY ARE NOT BENEFITING IN TERMS OF WEALTH FROM A COLLEGE DEGREE THE WAY THAT EARLIER GENERATIONS WERE.

>> GIVE ME A SCALE OF HOW MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE COLLEGE IS THEN SAY WHEN THE PARENTS MIGHT HAVE GONE?

WHAT IS FACTORING INTO OUR DECISION-MAKING PROCESS AND WHAT WE THINK COLLEGE WAS IN TERMS OF COST?

>> THE COST OF COLLEGE IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO CALCULATE.

INFLATION GOES UP OVER TIME, SO PEOPLE MY AGE WHEN THEY LOOK BACK ABOUT HOW EVERYTHING USED TO BE CHEAPER, SOME OF IT IS THAT.

THERE IS DEFINITELY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE COST OF COLLEGE THAT HAS RISEN ABOUT TWICE THE RATE OF INFLATION OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS.

MARY COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT FINANCIAL AID IS SO COMPLEX FOR SO MANY FAMILIES, SO THE STICKER PRICE IS ALMOST ALWAYS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT FAMILIES WILL ACTUALLY PAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT FOR FAMILIES TO UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHAT THE NUMBER WILL BE.

WITH FINANCIAL AID, IT COSTS ABOUT $33,000 ON AVERAGE FOR A STUDENT TO GO TO A PRIVATE UNIVERSITY AND ABOUT $19,000 ON AVERAGE FOR A STUDENT TO GO TO A PUBLIC UNIVERSITY, BUT THERE IS A VARIATION DEPENDING ON WHAT KIND OF AID YOU GET, WHO YOU ARE AND WHERE YOU ARE GOING >> STATE SCHOOLS ARE EXPENSIVE IF YOU ARE OUT-OF-STATE.

>> EXACTLY.

ONE OF THE NUMBERS THAT SURPRISED ME WAS THAT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AND IF YOU ARE OUT-OF-STATE, YOU MAY PAY A LOT MORE THAN IN-STATE.

JUNIORS AND SENIORS WERE ALL IN, INCLUDING TUITION AND EXPENSES ARE PAID MORE THAN $80,000 A YEAR.

THAT IS A HUGE AMOUNT FOR PUBLIC COLLEGE AND IS MUCH MORE THAN A GENERATION OR TWO AGO.

>> HOW MUCH DOES THE COST OF COLLEGE AND DEBT LOAD YOU MIGHT BE UNDER WHEN YOU COME OUT OPINION OF WHETHER OR NOT COLLEGE IS WORTH IT IN AMERICA?

>> THAT IS A HUGE IMPACT.

IT IS PROBABLY THE UNDERLYING FORCE.

THERE ARE A LOT OF CULTURAL AND POLITICAL FACTS MAKING PEOPLE MORE SKEPTICAL, BUT THE MONEY IS THE BIG ONE.

THE OTHER FACTOR THAT COMPLICATES FINANCIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT IT BECOMES MORE RISKY, SO IT USED TO BE THAT A COLLEGE DEGREE WOULD PAY OFF SIMILARLY FOR EVERYONE.

EVERYONE WAS BENEFITING A LITTLE BIT FROM A COLLEGE DEGREE.

DEPENDING ON THE LUCK OF THE DRAW AND PARTLY WHERE YOU GO OR WHAT YOU STUDY AND HOW MUCH YOU BORROW, THERE ARE SOME STUDENTS WHO ARE BENEFITING TREMENDOUSLY FROM THEIR COLLEGE DEGREE AND OTHERS WHO AREN'T BENEFITING AT ALL AND ARE LOSING MONEY IN THE GAMBLE OF GOING TO COLLEGE.

THAT HAS CREATED THIS DIFFERENT SENSE.

WHEN YOU GO TO HIGH SCHOOL, YOU DON'T THINK OF IT AS A GAMBLE, BUT YOU THINK YOU ARE GOING TO HIGH SCHOOL AND THIS IS WHAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO DO.

WHEN YOU GO TO COLLEGE, YOU ARE ONLY A YEAR OLDER, BUT SUDDENLY IN THIS INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED AND EXPENSIVE ACADEMIC GAME FOR SOME PEOPLE ARE DOING GREAT AND SOME PEOPLE AREN'T.

A LOT OF 19-YEAR-OLDS DON'T HAVE THE MIND-SET TO SUDDENLY BE IN THIS COMPETITIVE WORLD.

FOR A LOT OF THEM, THEY FEEL LIKE IT IS NOT A GAMBLE WORTH TAKING.

IT JUST DOESN'T FEEL GOOD TO BE SUDDENLY THROWN INTO THIS WORLD.

>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT GAMBLING, THERE IS AN ECONOMIST THAT YOU PROFILE IN THIS PIECE AND HE LIKENS TO GOING TO A CASINO.

TO BREAK DOWN THE ODDS FOR THE GAMES WE ARE PLAYING, BECAUSE NOT EVERYBODY WALKS INTO A CASINO WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF CHIPS OR PROBABILITIES.

>> THIS WAS AN ECONOMIST, DOUGLAS WEBBER.

THE CASINO ANALOGY WAS MINE AND NOT HIS.

WHAT STRUCK ME IN HIS NUMBERS WAS THAT HE WAS THE PERSON THAT LAID OUT THESE ODDS AND I FIND IT FASCINATING.

WHAT HE WAS ABLE TO DO WAS FIGURE OUT DIFFERENT FACTORS IN A STUDENT'S LIFE AND HOW THEY PLAYED INTO THE ODDS.

CERTAINLY, THEY ARE GOING TO GRADUATE AND YOU PAY ZERO FOR TUITION.

YOU HAVE 96% CHANCE OF HAVING HIGHER LIFETIME EARNINGS THAN A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE.

THOSE SOMEWHAT IMAGINARY PEOPLE THERE IS NO --THERE IS NO RISK.

FOR THEM, COLLEGE IS WORKING OUT THE WAY IT ALWAYS DID.

ABOUT 40% OF STUDENTS WHO START COLLEGE DON'T FINISH ON TIME AND CERTAINLY, COLLEGE IS NO LONGER FREE.

THE MORE YOU PAY AND THE HIGHER YOUR RISK OF DROPPING OUT OR NOT FINISHING HER DEGREE, THE WORSE THE ODDS GET.

THEY ALSO FOUND AN IMPACT OF WHAT MAJORS A STUDENT TAKES IF YOU STUDY A STEM FIELD SCIENCE OR TECHNOLOGY OR MATH, YOU ARE LIKELY TO WIN IN THE CASINO GOOD FOR EVERYBODY ELSE, TAKING ARTS, HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE DEGREES, EVEN IF THEY ARE SPENDING ONLY $25,000 A YEAR, THEY ARE -- THERE ODDS ARE 50-50 AND A COIN FLIP OF COMING OUT OF A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE.

IF THEY ARE SPENDING 50,000 A YEAR, WHICH A LOT OF STUDENTS ARE, SOME OF THERE ODDS ARE WORSE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL END UP WITH LOWER LIFETIME EARNINGS THAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE.

>> HE SPENT SIX YEARS WORKING ON A BOOK ABOUT THE INEQUALITIES IN HIGHER EDUCATION.

WHEN I LOOKED ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE AND INTERVIEWING EXPERTS THAT YOU DID AND STUDENTS WHO SPOKE TO, DID YOU COME OUT FEELING LIKE IT IS A SYSTEM THAT NEEDS MINOR TWEAKS IT IS MUCH MORE DEEP-ROOTED.

>> I THINK IT'S MUCH MORE DEEP- ROOTED.

THE THING ABOUT HIGHER EDUCATION IS THAT WHEN YOU SPEND THE TIME AROUND IT THAT I WAS ABLE TO DO WHEN I WAS REPORTING, IT DOES STILL HAVE THIS INCREDIBLE EFFECT ON SOCIAL MOBILITY AND TRANSFORMATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY IN PEOPLE FROM DISADVANTAGED BACKGROUNDS.

FOR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH MAKING US MORE UNEQUAL AND IT IS LEADING TO LESS MOBILITY AND KEEPING US TRAPPED IN THE SOCIAL DIVISIONS THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRAPPED IN FOR A WHILE.

CHANGING THAT TAKES A SERIOUS RECONSIDERATION OF HOW WE FINANCE HIGHER EDUCATION, PAY FOR IT AND ALSO HOW WE ORGANIZE.

THE IDEA THAT THERE ARE A VERY SMALL NUMBER OF COLLEGES THAT EVERYBODY WANTS TO GO TO THAT ARE INCREDIBLY VALUABLE AND EXPENSIVE, THAT IS JUST NOT VERY DEMOCRATIC.

THAT DOES NOT CREATE A SYSTEM WHERE EVERYONE SUPPORTS THE INSTITUTION.

IT CREATES A COMPETITIVE SYSTEM WHERE EVERYONE IS ANXIOUS AND MAD ALL THE TIME.

CERTAIN PEOPLE ARE BENEFITING A HUGE AMOUNT, BUT A LOT OTHERS ARE FEELING CONSTANTLY DISADVANTAGED A LOT OF THEM ARE BEING DISADVANTAGED, BUT EVERYBODY FEELS INSECURE.

IT IS TRUE BUT A LOT OF THINGS.

IT SHOULD BE TRUE OF HIGHER EDUCATION, BUT INCREASINGLY IT DOES FEEL LIKE AN INSTITUTION THAT IS MAKING US MORE ANXIOUS AND INSECURE.

>> YOU ALSO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS NO CULTURAL FACTORS IN AMERICA INFLUENCING HOW YOU FEEL TOWARDS COLLEGE.

>> THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS AND ONE OF THE POLLING DATA, WHICH WAS BEGINNING IN 2015.

REPUBLICANS SAID ABOUT HIGHER EDUCATION AND WHAT DEMOCRATS SAID.

DEMOCRATS ARE NOT QUITE AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS THEY WERE, BUT HAVEN'T TOO MUCH.

FOR REPUBLICANS, IT HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE FLOOR AND SHIFT IN HOW POSITIVE REPUBLICANS ARE ABOUT HIGHER EDUCATION AND HAVE BEEN MASSIVE SINCE 2015.

I THINK THAT HAS TO DO WITH EVERYTHING WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WITH ECONOMIC INSECURITY AND UNFAIRNESS.

IT HAS TO DO WITH THIS IDEA ON THE RIGHT THAT COLLEGES ARE INSTITUTIONS OF THE LIBERAL ESTABLISHMENT.

I THINK THAT IT CAN BE OVERBLOWN BUT THERE IS DATA THAT SHOWS THAT THERE IS TRUTH IN IT, AS WELL.

COLLEGE FRESHMAN BY ABOUT 3 TO 1 ARE CONSERVATIVE AND 520 WITH ADMINISTRATORS WHO ARE FACING STUDENTS.

A RURAL CONSERVATIVE PERSON THINKING ABOUT SENDING YOUR KID TO COLLEGE.

>> IT IS REALLY UNDERMINING THE WHOLE INSTITUTION.

I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOOD FOR ANYBODY OR LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES.

>> WHAT IS THE COST OVERSEAS TO GO TO COLLEGE CONSIDERING THE COST OF ONE OF THOSE DRIVING FACTORS OF WHETHER WE FEEL COLLEGES WITH IT IN THE U.S.?

>> WE LOOKED AT NUMBERS OF OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.

THERE IS A RANGE.

COLLEGE IS FREE FOR STUDENTS.

I COME FROM CANADA AND I WAS THERE OVER THE SUMMER AND TALKING TO FRIENDS WHO HAVE IT IS VERY MUCH AN ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM TO THE U.S. AND IT IS CHEAPER.

IT IS NOT FREE, BUT IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER.

LESS THAN HALF THE PRICE OF COLLEGE HERE AND PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT PAYS MORE, BUT PART OF IT IS THAT THERE ISN'T THE SENSE OF THERE BEING CERTAIN GOLDPLATED INSTITUTIONS THAT EVERYONE WANTS TO GO TO.

THERE ARE GOOD COLLEGES, BUT THERE AREN'T A LOT OF LOW- QUALITY COLLEGES.

IT IS A MUCH BETTER SYSTEM AND I THINK IT NOT ONLY SERVES THE COUNTRY, BUT CHANGES THE SENSE OF PUBLIC OPINION, BE AS BECAUSE YOU GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL OR COLLEGE AND FIND SOMETHING THAT FITS YOU AND IT'S NOT A HUGE DEAL.

IT'S NOT SOMETHING YOU SPENT THE LAST TWO YEARS OF HIGH SCHOOL FREAKING OUT ABOUT AND HAVE LOANS YOU HAVE TO PAY BACK THE REST OF YOUR LIFE.

>> WHEN YOU SEE THIS HAPPENING AND IT IS RELATIVELY SMALL PERIOD OF TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT IT PLAYING OUT?

>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE AMERICAN PAST AND OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES OR COMPETITOR NATIONS, THEY DO HIGHER EDUCATION DIFFERENTLY.

WHILE WE HAVE BEEN TURNING AGAINST COLLEGE, THEY HAVE BEEN TURNING TOWARDS.

THEIR PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE GOING TO COLLEGE HAS BEEN GOING UP RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS.

A BIG PART OF THAT IS THAT THEY INVEST IN PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES.

TUITION IS LOWER, BECAUSE THE PUBLIC THERE IS A LARGE PART OF THE BURDEN BASED ON THIS NATIONAL IDEA IN THESE OTHER COUNTRIES THAT IT IS SOMETHING THAT BENEFITS EVERYBODY.

THAT USED TO BE AN IDEA THAT WAS WIDELY HELD HERE IN THE G.I.

BILL AFTER WORLD WAR II.

WE THOUGHT HAVING MORE PEOPLE GOING TO COLLEGE AND GRADUATING WOULD BENEFIT THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE.

IT CREATED THE GREAT POSTWAR MIDDLE-CLASS AND THE GREAT POSTWAR ECONOMIC BOOM.

AT THIS MOMENT, I THINK WE CAN MAKE A SIMILAR DECISION AND DECIDED THAT WE WILL INVEST IN HIGHER EDUCATION AND IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN FOUR-YEAR UNIVERSITIES, BUT IT COULD MEAN DIFFERENT TYPES OF DEGREES FOR DIFFERENT INTERESTS.

WE COULD INVEST IN PUBLIC EDUCATION THAT BENEFITS EVERYBODY.

>> WHAT IS WORKING?

WHAT IS THE BEST MODEL FOR GETTING THE EDUCATION TO BE COMPETITIVE IN THE ECONOMY WITHOUT STRESSING YOURSELF OUT FOR FAMILY OF FINANCES?

>> GOING TO A PUBLIC COLLEGE IS STILL A MUCH BETTER DEAL THAN GOING TO A PRIVATE COLLEGE THAN MOST STUDENTS.

MY OLDEST SON IS A HIGH SCHOOL FRESHMAN, SO THIS IS ONLY A FEW YEARS OFF.

WHAT I WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT A.

THEN I WOULD HAVE BEFORE IS THAT YOU REALLY SORT OF HAVE TO THINK LIKE A CONSUMER.

IN THE PAST, PARENTS THAT WHATEVER THE BEST COLLEGE KID GETS INTO, THAT IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD GO TO.

INSTEAD, YOU HAVE TO TAKE QUESTIONS OF TUITION AND DEBT INTO ACCOUNT.

YOU HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THE KIND OF DATA THAT THESE ECONOMISTS ARE COMING OUT WITH.

HUGE AMOUNTS OF DEBT TO GET A DEGREE IS SOMETIMES WORTH IT IF IT IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT DEGREE AND YOU ARE SURE YOU CAN PAY IT OFF, BUT OFTEN IT IS NOT.

A LOT OF FAMILIES ARE BECOMING MORE SENSIBLE CONSUMERS OF TUITION AND DEBT.

THAT IS THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE TO PARENTS.

>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.