For additional perspective on the state of diplomacy with Iran, we turn now to our two Iran watchers.

Alan's work at the State Department focused on Iran and he was a senior member of the Obama administration's negotiating team for the Iran nuclear deal.

He's now at the Middle East institute.

And Miad Maliki was born and raised in Iran and until last year, he was associate director for sanction targeting in the US Treasury Department with a focus on Iran.

He's now a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Welcome back to you both.

Good to see you.

Mia, I'll begin with you.

It looks like the US delegation is set to go to Pakistan tomorrow to resume talks.

The question is, will the Iranians be there?

Will they show up?

Well, based on reportings, I I see Iranians are sending a delegation.

That's the last reporting that I've seen coming out of Iran.

Um, you know, it's it's very obvious that they know they need a deal.

I mean, they might still shout openly or through the press that they don't really need a deal, but economically uh and politically they really desperately need a deal right now.

So, they're going in search of a deal.

You think they're motivated to They're definitely I mean, their economy is on the I mean, it's a collapsed bankrupt economy.

They're getting there.

They have a few days before they run out of gasoline between 12 to 20 days if they can't import gasoline.

And last time they had to change the price on gasoline, increase the price on gasoline.

They had the one of the largest protests in Iran.

So they know domestically they're going to have to address the state of economy.

Alan, did the US attacking and boarding that ship.

Did it change leverage at all for the US change how these talks could go on?

I don't think so.

I mean, it possibly increased it increased the possibility that the Iranians wouldn't go, but as Miad said, they have to show up at the table just to see what the US is doing.

So again, both sides, each side wants to enter with sort of the marginal additional leverage to increase its position and the ship that was trying to run the blockade, I think, was testing US resolve.

But no, it didn't it didn't really move the dial either way in terms of what's going to happen at the table.

Well, you saw Liz Landers reporting earlier, the president told her if there is no deal at the end of the ceasefire that the US will resume bombing.

What do you make of those threats?

You think the US will make good on them?

and and do they pressure Iranians to come to a deal?

Uh, I think empirically I have learned not to put absolute credence into President Trump's statements.

A lot of them are either to assuage the market or to terrify the Iranians.

So, it could well be the case that if there's not even an interim deal that allows them to extend the ceasefire that there could be a resumption of hostilities.

But I really do think that the United States is not looking to resume hostilities and start climbing up that escalation ladder with Iran again because Iran will retaliate against regional energy and there could just be, you know, painful consequences.

Mead, is that how the Iranians see it?

Do you think those threats carry weight with the leadership there?

You know, if I'm in Tehran, if I'm a member of this regime, I would consider President Trump's warning to be more of a real threat.

I mean, historically, President Trump, you know, there are cases that, you know, he changed his mind.

He gave Iranians more time, but there are a lot of cases that you can point to that President Trump actually uh went ahead and and and stick stuck to his u threat.

So, in this case, I think Iranians know that it might end up being things might end up getting worse for them um on the on you know, on the Persian Gulf side.

But you know what I disagree with Allan on is you know that the tanker that was targeted and stopped by um US Navy.

It does send a very strong message to the Iranians that the blockade is serious and the implication of uh on the economic side of you know oil not being not leaving Persian Gulf and the imports fully stopped through this blockade.

I think that's sent a very strong message to the Iranians that this is a real blockade.

Well, the Americans also haven't changed any of the terms or anything they're trying to push for in this deal, right?

And this was the same deal both sides walked away from last time.

What are the prospects that there's some kind of successful deal if the Americans haven't change the things they're asking for, Alan?

Well, we don't know for certainty, or at least I don't, that they haven't changed it.

For example, President Trump at one point said, "We do not want any indigenous enrichment on Iran."

Now that's modulated somewhat to a freeze on uranium enrichment for 20 years.

The Iranians say, "Well, how about five years?"

Yeah, there's room to negotiate.

A deal is doable both on nuclear issues on on uh on the foremost.

But the the situation is this.

The more you you know, it's like the scale a scale.

The more you put in the scale of what I want, the more you have to put in the scale of what I'm prepared to give.

M and I think this part of the scale is where the US might have some problems.

Where do you think the US is on that part of the scale?

What are they willing to give?

I think possible that they're willing to unfreeze assets.

Um I think it's possible, maybe barely possible, they'd be willing to accept down blending of highlyenriched uranium as opposed to getting rid of it all.

But things like obviously what the Iranians want, reparations, that not going to happen.

and quick and a full sanctions relief is not going to happen.

Man, how do you see it?

What would the Iranians agree to?

I think Iranians would agree to anything that would give them access to some cash.

Uh that's what they really need.

Freezing of those funds would be key.

I think that's what they, you know, they they brought in.

If you look at the delegation, members of delegation that went to Islamabad last time around from Iran, they took their central bank governor with them, but they didn't take anyone from the atomic energy organization.

And one of the demands was really access to those funds that are sitting in Oman, cutter and Iraq and elsewhere.

And those are funds that they don't really need any kind of sanctions relief to to be to be available to the regime.

They just really need some letters from the US government or some message or signal from the US government.

So that's not a really heavy lift for US government and Iranians know that and they really need that cash right now.

Meanwhile, we saw the strait declared open by Iranian officials and the next day it suddenly was not.

President Trump says the blockade will also continue.

Allan, do you see another round of talks opening the straight and ending the blockade?

No, this is m This is their again, pardon the pun, their trump card is control of the straight.

They never opened it.

Even when Arachi said, "We're going to open it."

If you had read the fine print, which wasn't in the social media post, it was if you go through Iranian waters, if you coordinate with the IRGC Navy, and if you pay a toll.

So, it was more a question of emphasis.

And yes, the IRGC came back later and clamped that down.

But uh no, the straight of hormones is is their most effective leverage because every day it stays closed, its power increases.

Yeah.

How do you see it?

This is a key point for President Trump.

He wants that straight open.

You know, I think this is not a Trump card.

This is a there was a nuclear option for the Iranian regime.

The closure of a straight of foremost, they deployed it and it backlashed economically.

I think they're on the clock economically.

If the blockade continues if they keep straight of hormones closed, they're going to see the result on the ground in different provinces in Iran as far as you know gasoline prices, food prices.

I think they're just trying to wait out a few days, maybe a couple weeks to see if they can get a deal winning the war of narrative here in the US and in the west.

But at the end of the day, you know, every time there was a US escalation with Iran, whether it was some air strikes or killing off Solemani, you know, RGC commanders, Iranians always, Iranian regime, they always come back to the negotiations table because they need a deal.

So they might play with the words.

They might we might hear rhetorics coming out of Iran that don't really make sense.

But at the end of the day, they desperately need a deal and they're going to have to really give up some of those um you know some of the principles they've been sticking to.

Alan, I'll give you the last word here in the few seconds we have left.

If the Street of Hormuz is the Iranians trump card, what's the best leverage for the US?

Well, as Beyond said, the great leverage is blockading Iran.

And the problem is you got two clocks and the straight of hormones I'm giving pain clock is moving a lot more quickly than the naval blockade pain to Iran.

Plus Iran can take more pain.

Iran is not heading into an election year.

Alanair Mad Maliki, great to see you both here.

Thank you so much.

Thanks.

Thank you.

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